What will 2025 bring to our industry?

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[00:00:28] Welcome to Episode 89 of the Inside Job Boards and Recruitment Marketplaces podcast. By the way, we won an award for the needlessly longest name of any podcast out there, and we'll get back to you on which award that was.

[00:00:43] It's on a strictly need-to-know basis only. For those of you who don't know me, this is Stephen Rothberg. I'm the founder of College Recruiter. I'm the one with the bad jokes.

[00:00:53] That's pretty clear. You didn't have to expound on it to make that even more obvious.

[00:01:00] I am paid by the word, Peter. I am paid by the word.

[00:01:03] And I'm Peter Zollman, the founder of the AIM Group. We provide business intelligence to marketplaces all around the world,

[00:01:12] and we have a conference called RecBuzz. So between the two of us, you're probably thinking,

[00:01:19] why am I here with 2025 either just around the corner or one way or the other just around the corner?

[00:01:28] Short answer is, we're going to talk about what happens to job boards and recruitment marketplaces in 2025.

[00:01:36] And Stephen has some ideas about that.

[00:01:39] Yeah, so we're going to hit four topics. And given that Peter and I sometimes go off on slight tangents,

[00:01:46] which at least we find enjoyable.

[00:01:48] Never!

[00:01:49] Or our loved ones maybe would have a different word to describe our tangents. But that's another topic for another podcast.

[00:01:56] But we are going to talk about AI. We're going to talk about economics, the economies, etc.,

[00:02:03] that are impacting job boards, recruitment marketplaces, always do.

[00:02:08] A little bit of a career builder, monster, probably some talk about other major players and big moves that they've made or going to make.

[00:02:18] And then we're going to conclude with a little bit of conferences where we might get to see you and where you might want to hide from us.

[00:02:27] So, Peter, you want to hit AI first?

[00:02:30] Yeah, everybody's been talking about AI forever.

[00:02:33] So I'm going to make my prediction, if that's the right word, very brief.

[00:02:38] I think AI in 2025 will come down to, here are some very specific uses that we are making for AI.

[00:02:50] This is what we're going to focus on.

[00:02:52] We may test.

[00:02:54] We may keep working on.

[00:02:56] We may keep trying other things.

[00:02:58] But here are the two cases or three cases or four cases that we have developed that are really working for us.

[00:03:06] And we're going to focus on those.

[00:03:08] And we're not going to talk about it so much as we do it.

[00:03:12] Okay.

[00:03:13] I think you're thinking very much along the same lines as me.

[00:03:17] And I'll go in just a little bit of a different vantage point.

[00:03:21] I think the talk around AI in our industry is going to be much more internal.

[00:03:28] The AI that we're going to be using is going to be more internal, less external.

[00:03:32] And what I mean by that is it's going to be more about getting the right jobs in front of the right candidates.

[00:03:39] And the matching that actually happens, which alerts the candidates actually get.

[00:03:44] And we're going to be using AI to make our technology more efficient and effective, not as much in our marketing and sales pitches.

[00:03:55] Right now, I think a lot of job boards, when it comes to AI, are doing a hell of a lot more in the marketing side than they are in the actual tech side.

[00:04:03] And I think we're going to reverse that in 2025.

[00:04:05] I certainly see everybody talking about AI this, AI that, AI everything.

[00:04:12] And, you know, shut up and do.

[00:04:14] Yeah.

[00:04:15] We may not be artificial, but then it's okay because we're also not intelligent.

[00:04:19] Which takes us to the next topic, economics.

[00:04:22] Are you talking about me or?

[00:04:26] It's the royal we.

[00:04:28] Okay.

[00:04:29] Economies.

[00:04:30] You know, 2022, 2021, when COVID hit, everybody thought, oh my gosh, this is going to be a disaster for job boards.

[00:04:41] Yeah.

[00:04:41] And for a little while it was.

[00:04:44] Yep.

[00:04:45] And then suddenly everything exploded in a positive direction.

[00:04:50] Yep.

[00:04:51] Which made 2023 look really kind of soft and crummy because things slowed down so much.

[00:04:59] 2024, depending on where you are in the world, has been better.

[00:05:05] If for no other reason than year over year comparisons are not as difficult.

[00:05:11] 2025, I think many, most places will probably see even better years, except for those that are in the really difficult war-torn areas.

[00:05:22] Israel, Syria, Iraq, Iran, some of the African countries that are struggling.

[00:05:30] Ukraine, Russia.

[00:05:32] Yeah.

[00:05:32] Ukraine, Russia is certainly going to be difficult.

[00:05:34] Although Headhunter had its best year ever this year in Russia.

[00:05:40] We just had a big, big piece about that.

[00:05:43] Excellent year in Russia for Headhunter.

[00:05:46] Russia is a big piece of work.

[00:05:47] And they just keep getting better and better.

[00:05:50] So Russia, maybe not.

[00:05:53] Because it's tough to keep getting better and better.

[00:05:56] But they certainly are.

[00:05:58] But in the most, in most cases, and the Ukrainian job boards and the Ukrainian technology sector and economy are holding up remarkably well, given what's going on in Ukraine.

[00:06:09] So I think 2025 is probably a good year for job boards, maybe a really good year for job boards in most countries, as long as things don't turn south.

[00:06:29] All right.

[00:06:30] My turn.

[00:06:31] Economics.

[00:06:33] This is probably like the most uncertain that I have been for years about where the economy is going.

[00:06:41] There are just all of these really inconsistent signals, right?

[00:06:45] Trump is coming in.

[00:06:47] Are tariffs going to be massive?

[00:06:49] If so, will those tariffs really boost the American economy?

[00:06:52] Will we get massive inflation?

[00:06:54] If we get massive inflation, will that lead to interest rates going up?

[00:06:58] How does that affect the global economy?

[00:07:00] Or does he come in and people take his threat seriously and trade starts to become more fair?

[00:07:10] Who knows?

[00:07:11] But I do think that Trump is a huge wild card.

[00:07:14] And I do think it's going to extend far beyond American borders.

[00:07:19] If inflation goes up because tariffs go up, interest rates go up, and that's going to hurt the job boards, our customers, our vendors, et cetera.

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[00:07:43] Good point.

[00:07:45] And calling President Trump or soon to be President Trump a wild card is the most understated comment you could possibly have made.

[00:08:00] Well, thank you, Captain Obvious.

[00:08:02] Next one.

[00:08:03] Career builder, monster, other big players.

[00:08:06] Okay, career builder, monster.

[00:08:08] You know, something's got to happen there.

[00:08:12] Probably go to one brand.

[00:08:16] What will that be?

[00:08:18] I don't know.

[00:08:19] I am guessing that they are really tight on expenses while they figure out what happens next.

[00:08:30] Does it really matter at this point?

[00:08:34] You know, there's still giant job boards in the United States.

[00:08:39] They're pretty much gone from everywhere else.

[00:08:42] The monster name is gone almost everywhere else.

[00:08:47] Career builder doesn't have a lot of presence anywhere else and sold off most of the pieces that it had.

[00:08:58] But, you know, something's going to happen there.

[00:09:01] Does it really matter?

[00:09:02] I don't know.

[00:09:02] But it's certainly still of interest in our industry.

[00:09:05] And, of course, when you get done throwing in your two cents on career builder, monster, we'll talk about Indeed and what they are cooking up in international waters.

[00:09:19] Sure.

[00:09:19] So, career builder, monster.

[00:09:21] Let me just say something that not enough people in our industry, I think, talk about.

[00:09:26] And that is traffic quality.

[00:09:28] So, we do business with both of them.

[00:09:31] And one of the interesting things, at least to me, is that the traffic that we get from career builder and monster is far better in terms of quality.

[00:09:42] In what percentage of the candidates convert into applications?

[00:09:46] And what percentage of our customers that are getting that we're basically sending that traffic to?

[00:09:52] Like, how many of them are happy with that traffic?

[00:09:55] Are they converting into interviews to the extent that the employers even know that?

[00:09:59] And I think it's a bit of an under-told story that it's not just about their brand name, their lack of Super Bowl ads anymore, the fact that they're, I think, globally, like number 20 and 21 in terms of traffic.

[00:10:13] You combine them.

[00:10:14] I think they're, what, top six, seven, eight, something like that.

[00:10:18] But their quality is better than a lot of aggregators.

[00:10:22] And that is going to stand them in really good stead.

[00:10:25] That's a big asset for them.

[00:10:26] I think that's something that we should pull out and tout a little bit for them.

[00:10:33] And I hope somebody from career builder listens and watches this and reaches out to you for more information.

[00:10:40] They will be tagged in the show notes.

[00:10:42] Okay.

[00:10:43] And Indeed, by the way, just to touch this one before we wrap up or go to conferences and then wrap up, because we always like, we're all about going to conferences.

[00:10:53] Indeed, recently changed the way it operates in Japan and will only accept feeds directly or from ATSs, will not scrape them or download them.

[00:11:12] And that is a big shift.

[00:11:16] They were very emphatic that it is only Japan, to which I add, for now.

[00:11:25] If it works for them, you can be sure that's going to evolve quickly.

[00:11:32] So does this mean that a smaller employer that does not have an ATS, or even a large one that does,

[00:11:39] if they want to go to Indeed in Japan and manually post a job, that they cannot do that?

[00:11:46] I believe that is still a possibility.

[00:11:49] But I confess that I didn't quite understand it other than Jim wrote about it after we had back and forth with Indeed.

[00:11:59] They made an announcement over there.

[00:12:01] We picked up on it.

[00:12:02] They went, hmm, we don't know, meaning the American Indeed, which is corporate headquarters, but corporate parent is in Japan.

[00:12:11] Yeah.

[00:12:11] And they've made some big changes that will make a big difference.

[00:12:17] And you can read about them on our website.

[00:12:20] And that's Jim Durbin, a.k.a. the Indeed Whisperer.

[00:12:23] Something like that, yes.

[00:12:25] Cool.

[00:12:25] All right.

[00:12:26] Conferences.

[00:12:27] Conferences.

[00:12:27] So one of my favorite things to do, both business and personal, and they intersect, is to go to conferences.

[00:12:35] I'll usually go to at least two, usually three or four a year.

[00:12:41] RecBuzz is one that I've been to multiple times.

[00:12:43] April in Vienna.

[00:12:45] And there are other ones that are really, really great for job boards.

[00:12:49] Sometimes if it's a job board that's really small, doesn't have the budget, they can attend some of these events virtually, go to webcasts, that kind of thing.

[00:12:59] Chris Russell is having a virtual conference, I think, this week.

[00:13:03] Yeah.

[00:13:04] I'm glad that you mentioned it because actually he was the person I was going to mention.

[00:13:08] Like the smaller job boards, which he really does a great job with, that's a really good option.

[00:13:14] But if you're in London, job boards connect a couple times a year.

[00:13:20] If you're just about anywhere, the RecBuzz.

[00:13:23] And there are other conferences too, Peter Weddle's conferences with TA Tech.

[00:13:28] Those are also really good for job boards and recruitment marketplaces.

[00:13:32] And then there's Unleash and the recruitment conference in Nashville, both of which are targeted towards recruiters rather than job boards.

[00:13:44] But, you know, when you can go someplace where there are 1,000, 2,000, 3,000 of your closest friends and prospects, it's a great place to be and hear what they're talking about.

[00:13:56] You got any last words other than Happy New Year?

[00:13:59] I think that the one thing that we can count on happening in 2025 is that we can't count on anything happening.

[00:14:09] I really do think it's going to be a very topsy-turvy, inconsistent year.

[00:14:16] Really great for some geographies, really bad for others, really great for certain sectors, niches, really bad for others.

[00:14:24] I do not think that this is going to be a one-size-fits-all year for our industry.

[00:14:30] That's fair, but I do think there's one absolute guarantee that we can say what is going to happen in 2025.

[00:14:38] Change.

[00:14:39] Bingo.

[00:14:40] Okay.

[00:14:41] On that note, sir, best wishes to you and Faith for a happy and healthy New Year.

[00:14:48] Mm-hmm.

[00:14:50] Peaceful, prosperous.

[00:14:52] May somebody come and drop, you know, $30 million, $50 million, $100 million on you to take a college recruiter off your hand.

[00:15:00] Oh, I just got that email from the deposed king of Nigeria, so we're good.

[00:15:04] Good.

[00:15:05] Yeah.

[00:15:05] Have a good one, sport.

[00:15:07] Cheers, my friend.

[00:15:08] Happy New Year.

[00:15:08] Bye-bye.