This Isn’t a Negotiation | Robert Pape on the Iran War

This is Part 5 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) analyzing the Iran conflict in real time.

Over the past week, multiple ceasefires were announced—and just as quickly fell apart. At the same time, the U.S. and Iran have continued escalating pressure through a de facto blockade dynamic around the Strait of Hormuz.

But the most important takeaway from this conversation is more fundamental:

👉 This is not a negotiation. It’s power politics.

• Why ceasefires and “deals” keep collapsing almost immediately
• The enforcement problem in international politics—and why agreements don’t hold
• How both the U.S. and Iran are effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz
• Why the conflict is shifting toward a longer war dynamic
• How escalation signals are being used to demonstrate credibility
• What potential retaliation against U.S. naval forces could look like

In international conflict, there is no court to enforce agreements.

Every concession can create new vulnerability—and that makes real compromise extremely difficult.

• Any direct attacks on U.S. naval vessels operating near the blockade line
• Further escalation tied to strikes on infrastructure (power, bridges)
• Whether negotiations resume—or continue to break down
• Signs the conflict is settling into a sustained long-war dynamic

New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time.

Pape publishes ongoing frameworks and updates on this conflict via Substack. https://escalationtrap.substack.com/

At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.