Episode 87 - PayScale's 2023 End of Year Report Hot Jobs Report

[00:00:00] Hello everybody and welcome to this edition of Comp and Coffee. I am Ruth Thomas,

[00:00:26] a

[00:00:56] And this year also we've included some predictions

[00:00:58] from our thought leaders.

[00:01:00] So we thought it was a great topic to chat about

[00:01:03] in this episode, and I've got two fantastic participants today.

[00:01:07] First of all, let's welcome Lexi Clark.

[00:01:09] Lexi is our Chief People Officer here at Payscale.

[00:01:13] Welcome Lexi.

[00:01:15] Thank you.

[00:01:15] Happy to be here.

[00:01:17] Nice for many of you have seen Lexi on webinars

[00:01:19] and events that we've run here at Payscale,

[00:01:22] but this is your first Compton Coffee,

[00:01:23] so there's no special initiation ceremony, but just welcome.

[00:01:27] Thank you.

[00:01:28] But a face that you do know and a name

[00:01:30] that you do know from Compton Coffee

[00:01:32] is Amy Stewart, our fantastic associate director

[00:01:35] of Content Marketing, and she is the author

[00:01:38] of the end of year reports.

[00:01:39] So she's going to be filling us on the details of the report.

[00:01:43] So thank you very much for joining me today.

[00:01:45] So before we dig into the topic, let's kind of reflect

[00:01:48] on the time of year we're in.

[00:01:50] We're all getting ready for Christmas.

[00:01:51] I was just saying, we can't go too wide angle on my camera

[00:01:54] at the moment because there's an awful lot of Christmas mess

[00:01:57] happening behind me.

[00:01:58] But one of the things we also think about in this time

[00:02:00] is food or potentially drink.

[00:02:02] So Amy, let's start with you.

[00:02:04] Do you have a favorite festive food

[00:02:06] or what is a kind of a traditional food for you

[00:02:09] your family at this time of year?

[00:02:11] I really love gingerbread, not gingerbread cookies

[00:02:15] or gingerbread candies, but like you get a Betty Crocker box

[00:02:19] of gingerbread and you make it in a pan

[00:02:23] and you eat it as like little squares of gingerbread.

[00:02:25] The challenges that those little boxes are hard to find,

[00:02:28] they have to go to like specialty stores to order them.

[00:02:31] But I like to make gingerbread every year this time of year.

[00:02:34] We actually got our gingerbread dough from Ikea.

[00:02:37] They have gingerbread dough, yeah.

[00:02:39] We have no idea, yeah, there's them.

[00:02:42] We have to have it two blocks of that sitting in my fridge

[00:02:45] waiting for one of my daughters to make.

[00:02:47] And what about you, Lexie?

[00:02:48] Favorite festive food or tip-a-law at this time of year?

[00:02:52] Yes, this is fudge season in our family.

[00:02:56] And so any day now we will start making some batches

[00:02:59] of fudge that I like to throw in the freezer

[00:03:02] and then I can eat for a little bit longer

[00:03:04] and to what Amy said, cut off a little square and enjoy.

[00:03:07] But this is homemade fudge season

[00:03:08] and I look forward to it every single year.

[00:03:11] Every single year.

[00:03:12] Do you give it as gifts to people?

[00:03:13] We do.

[00:03:14] We do give it as gifts to people

[00:03:16] or I just give it as a gift to myself eating it over and over

[00:03:19] and over again.

[00:03:20] You know?

[00:03:21] Either worse, either worse.

[00:03:23] Yes, I'm trying to think they're sweet.

[00:03:25] I'm not really a sweet toothed person

[00:03:27] although we do seem to end up every Christmas

[00:03:30] with like a massive bowl with everybody's favorite sort

[00:03:33] of sweet thing in their Turkish delight

[00:03:36] for some reason one thing that we all seem to love

[00:03:38] in the family at this time of year.

[00:03:39] Not quite sure why but yeah.

[00:03:41] So well, I'm feeling hungry already.

[00:03:44] Let's get on and talk about the topic

[00:03:46] and then we can all go and grab something to eat.

[00:03:48] So there's quite a lot in this end of year report, Amy.

[00:03:53] Can you start us off by sharing some of the headlines

[00:03:56] particularly around the labor market key labor market trends

[00:03:59] that we're seeing?

[00:04:00] Yeah, so to create this report,

[00:04:02] we analyze data from a couple of sources.

[00:04:05] We look at the Joltz data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

[00:04:09] so that's job openings and labor turnover survey.

[00:04:13] We also pull numbers on unemployment, labor force

[00:04:16] participation and the consumer price index

[00:04:18] which is a look at inflation over time.

[00:04:21] And we also look at pay scales wage growth data

[00:04:24] as well as our general employee report of data

[00:04:27] to identify what the hot jobs are from 2023.

[00:04:31] So in this case, these are the fastest growing jobs

[00:04:34] by wage growth and also the jobs that people

[00:04:37] are quitting the most or want to quit the most

[00:04:40] with their associated median pay.

[00:04:42] And we have a couple of key findings this year

[00:04:45] which are always exciting,

[00:04:47] but I feel like the last couple of years

[00:04:48] the labor economy has been just a real interesting topic

[00:04:52] for HR and folks in general.

[00:04:55] So we did see that in 2023 that the economy slowed

[00:04:59] but I would describe it as an uncertain economic position

[00:05:04] right now.

[00:05:04] We don't know if we're about to go into a recession

[00:05:07] or if we just had a period of slowed growth

[00:05:10] and we're going to be poised then for a revival in 2024.

[00:05:15] It could really go either way.

[00:05:17] We did see that layoffs and unemployment

[00:05:20] are not as egregious as people were expecting.

[00:05:23] So in the beginning of 2023,

[00:05:25] there was this anticipation that we would go into a recession

[00:05:28] that there would be a rebalancing of the market

[00:05:31] with unemployment going up.

[00:05:33] But right now both layoffs and unemployment

[00:05:36] are below historical averages

[00:05:38] and labor market is still strong.

[00:05:41] However, it's a little bit of a weird market

[00:05:43] it's difficult market I think from both employers

[00:05:46] and employees despite having cooled off

[00:05:49] it feels very frantic and very maddening.

[00:05:53] So we're going to talk a little bit

[00:05:54] about why that is in the report

[00:05:56] and a little bit also on this podcast.

[00:05:58] Right, thank you.

[00:05:59] And I think one of the things you look at

[00:06:01] is the ratio between job openings and hires

[00:06:05] and we're still seeing that there are more job openings

[00:06:08] than hires and it kind of get this feeling

[00:06:11] that there's still hard to fill roles out there

[00:06:14] for employers.

[00:06:16] I'm interested to hit both your views on this,

[00:06:18] but Amy do you want to start us off?

[00:06:20] Yes, I have a lot that I can say about this.

[00:06:23] I'll try to be concise

[00:06:24] but you are absolutely right.

[00:06:26] The job openings are elevated well above

[00:06:29] what they were before 2019.

[00:06:31] They have come down, they're getting close

[00:06:33] to where they were in 2019

[00:06:35] but the ratio of hires to job openings is inverted.

[00:06:40] If you look back historically like pre pandemic

[00:06:43] back before the Great Recession area,

[00:06:45] those lines used to be much more closely tied together.

[00:06:49] And for many reasons,

[00:06:50] jobs are staying open for longer than not getting filled

[00:06:54] despite many, many people applying for those roles.

[00:06:58] So we want to look at that as one

[00:06:59] of the kind of key areas of interest

[00:07:02] in this particular labor market

[00:07:03] which I think is valuable for both HR

[00:07:06] and hiring managers on the employer side.

[00:07:08] And also valuable for people who are looking

[00:07:10] for a new job where we're caught in the layoffs

[00:07:12] and are unemployed and are trying to figure out

[00:07:14] how do I navigate this situation right now

[00:07:16] because it is particularly challenging.

[00:07:19] One thing to note is that one of the challenges

[00:07:21] that's impacting the labor market currently

[00:07:24] is that labor force participation is at historic lows

[00:07:28] and that has been true for decades.

[00:07:30] And we have not even caught up to pre pandemic levels

[00:07:33] with labor force participation

[00:07:35] and this is likely only to get worse

[00:07:37] because birth rates have gone down around the world

[00:07:40] in part due to unaffordability

[00:07:42] and boomers are heading retirement.

[00:07:43] So we're seeing fewer people in the workforce

[00:07:46] like holistically which creates some of these challenges.

[00:07:49] But as mentioned for knowledge workers in particular,

[00:07:53] it does not feel like an employee's market.

[00:07:56] We are hearing about anecdotally very highly qualified

[00:08:00] job seekers just struggling to get seen,

[00:08:03] to get through interview processes, to get hired.

[00:08:06] Processes are getting increasingly drawn out.

[00:08:09] We've heard stories of people who are asked

[00:08:11] to do assignments as part of their interview loop

[00:08:14] and then are unpaid for that work

[00:08:16] and also don't get the job

[00:08:18] and also the employers use that work

[00:08:20] within their company without paying for it

[00:08:22] and that creates a lot of negative tension.

[00:08:25] I think in the hiring processes

[00:08:28] and listening to that consumer experience

[00:08:32] just create a lot of questions for me.

[00:08:34] One of the big questions is why are jobs that are open

[00:08:37] not getting filled or not getting filled very fast?

[00:08:40] In 2023 we're just seeing potentially

[00:08:43] that people are not able to find the folks

[00:08:46] with the skills that they need.

[00:08:48] So getting a lot of applications

[00:08:50] but those skills are not necessarily

[00:08:52] the right combination of things

[00:08:54] that employers are looking for.

[00:08:56] But there's also pushback on that.

[00:08:57] Is it really that you're not getting the right skills

[00:09:00] or are you being too picky about the skills that you need

[00:09:02] and looking for 100% of the qualifications

[00:09:06] rather than 70 or 80% that you then add training to?

[00:09:10] So there's a lot of disagreement, I think,

[00:09:12] about what the right processes are

[00:09:14] and when you have AI adding to that

[00:09:16] it can create an even higher bar

[00:09:18] to meet all of the keywords

[00:09:20] that are in the job description with your resume

[00:09:22] which can weed out potentially good candidates.

[00:09:25] So we are seeing that.

[00:09:26] And then the question for a comp and coffee in particular

[00:09:29] is if you are looking for people with 100% of the skills

[00:09:34] in the job description,

[00:09:36] does that mean you need to pay them at the top of the range?

[00:09:38] And are people doing that?

[00:09:40] So that is a very interesting question to me

[00:09:43] and I'm be fascinated to hear what Lexi has to say about this

[00:09:47] about the AI piece about how recruiting is going on right now

[00:09:50] from her perspective as a people leader.

[00:09:53] Yes, so what are you seeing Lexi

[00:09:54] from the protectionist perspective

[00:09:57] any of those trends resonate with you?

[00:09:59] Yeah, I mean, I think especially on the recruitment

[00:10:02] hiring front, I mean we have seen anecdotally

[00:10:05] even as we've had open roles at pay scale

[00:10:07] I mean hundreds and hundreds of applications

[00:10:09] are coming in within 24 hours of opening the role.

[00:10:11] And so I think if we think about the last few years

[00:10:15] but especially the last 12 months

[00:10:16] and all of the headlines around layoffs

[00:10:19] and kind of massive amount of folks looking

[00:10:21] for new opportunities

[00:10:23] because maybe their role was impacted

[00:10:25] or even more so, you know, layoffs have such a strong impact

[00:10:29] on overall engagement of employee populations

[00:10:31] and generally even the folks that maybe were not directly

[00:10:34] impacted maybe this is their time

[00:10:36] that they're starting to look around.

[00:10:37] I mean we are seeing, you know,

[00:10:39] our recruiting team really kind of drowning

[00:10:41] in those applications trying to sort through

[00:10:43] and find the right folks and the right skills.

[00:10:46] I also just think behaviorally

[00:10:48] when you see the market shift in this direction

[00:10:51] to what Amy was really sharing,

[00:10:53] I think there's an interesting response

[00:10:55] of looking for someone that is 110% qualified

[00:11:00] maybe for that role or trying to vet through that

[00:11:02] and some of that I think is a response

[00:11:04] from a leadership standpoint

[00:11:05] to no longer being in the period of growth, right?

[00:11:08] And it is easier when you are in a period of growth

[00:11:11] and you have more opportunity and budget

[00:11:13] to fill more seats than it is

[00:11:16] when you are in a time where you've got

[00:11:17] to be really specific around your hiring needs,

[00:11:20] your talent and maybe what those skills are

[00:11:24] to Amy's point.

[00:11:24] And I think that causes leaders

[00:11:26] to not necessarily know exactly what they want.

[00:11:29] And I think that has such an impact

[00:11:31] on what we're seeing on the recruiting front.

[00:11:34] I also think, I mentioned this briefly

[00:11:35] on just the retention side of things

[00:11:38] but I do think a couple things have not gone away

[00:11:41] and I think that employer employee friction

[00:11:44] has not gone away is not going away

[00:11:46] even with the impact that I think

[00:11:48] that we've seen in the labor market and layoffs.

[00:11:50] You are still seeing employees advocate

[00:11:53] for wanting to be at a company

[00:11:55] that provides them flexibility,

[00:11:57] that provides them some kind of mission

[00:11:59] that they can feel really strongly apart of.

[00:12:01] And that means that when companies are having to make decisions

[00:12:05] like doing layoffs or having impacted folks

[00:12:08] those employees that are sticking around

[00:12:09] are really looking for something from their employer

[00:12:12] and hopefully they're getting it

[00:12:13] and that is how you retain folks.

[00:12:15] But if they're not, I think that adds to what we're seeing

[00:12:18] in the labor market as well.

[00:12:19] And so I think retention and engagement

[00:12:21] more critical than ever,

[00:12:22] compensation is such a large part of that

[00:12:24] and is specifically transparency around compensation.

[00:12:27] But I would say that report resonates with tactically

[00:12:31] what I am seeing and hearing every single day

[00:12:34] and anecdotally when I'm talking

[00:12:36] appears at other companies, other organizations

[00:12:39] or even employees that are trying to navigate

[00:12:42] what they want to do next.

[00:12:43] I mean, I think it's spot on for what many companies

[00:12:46] and many each other are going through.

[00:12:48] Thanks, Betsy.

[00:12:50] So we obviously spend quite a lot of time

[00:12:51] thinking about the labor market

[00:12:53] and the reason we do that is because it significantly drives

[00:12:56] wages and that's what we're all about here at PSGAL

[00:12:59] is like we're all about pay.

[00:13:01] So Amy, from the observations of the labor market

[00:13:04] what impact do we think this will have on wages

[00:13:06] we pivot into 2024?

[00:13:09] Yeah, so wages are going to go up.

[00:13:11] Wages always go up.

[00:13:12] We don't ever see wages go down

[00:13:14] but the rate of growth has relaxed in most sectors

[00:13:18] but most sectors, not all sectors.

[00:13:22] So that is a little bit of an individualistic thing

[00:13:24] you do have to look it up for your particular jobs

[00:13:27] and your particular industry.

[00:13:29] Healthcare is an example of an industry

[00:13:31] where wages are growing faster than other sectors.

[00:13:34] Typically wage growth maps to inflation

[00:13:37] and inflation is coming down.

[00:13:39] It is currently just over 3%.

[00:13:41] The target is 2%.

[00:13:43] So if the market can bear it

[00:13:45] we may continue to see increased interest rates.

[00:13:48] However, it's also in the election year

[00:13:50] so there may be some tension around lowering interest rates

[00:13:54] to keep the economy strong

[00:13:56] not quite sure how that's going to bear out in 2024

[00:13:59] but definitely something to keep an eye on.

[00:14:01] But so far the market has borne those increased interest rates

[00:14:04] who did not go into a recession

[00:14:06] the way that many banks prophesized

[00:14:08] that we would at the beginning of 2023

[00:14:10] and because we do have those labor shortages

[00:14:13] we are technically, technically still in an employees market

[00:14:17] heading into 2024.

[00:14:19] High rates are obviously a struggle for businesses

[00:14:21] especially in certain sectors like technology startups

[00:14:23] that rely on investment

[00:14:25] in order to facilitate growth

[00:14:27] because they take loans as companies

[00:14:29] in order to manifest the growth of those businesses.

[00:14:33] There are other indicators that the economy is strong.

[00:14:36] The Black Friday did 9.8 billion dollars

[00:14:39] just in online sales

[00:14:41] and the Cyber Monday was even stronger.

[00:14:43] So we're in a mixed market,

[00:14:45] we're at an uncertain market

[00:14:46] we don't know exactly what is going to happen

[00:14:49] and that certainly can impact wage growth.

[00:14:52] As far as do we think that pay is going to be as high

[00:14:58] in 2024 as it was in 2023?

[00:15:01] If we look at pay scale salary budget survey

[00:15:03] the answer is yes.

[00:15:04] Employers are continuing to give higher wages

[00:15:09] than they did pre-pandemic.

[00:15:11] So over 3%.

[00:15:13] Hayskills analysis showed 3.8%.

[00:15:16] I've seen 4% from other institutions

[00:15:19] even higher than that in a couple of areas

[00:15:22] and that is a really fantastic story

[00:15:25] for organizations that follow through with that in 2024

[00:15:29] because this is the first time that we will see

[00:15:31] wage growth exceed inflation in the last couple of years

[00:15:35] and we know that employees are hungry for that

[00:15:38] that they deserve that given that

[00:15:41] just because inflation is going down

[00:15:42] as it mean that prices have gone down.

[00:15:44] Although there is a potential

[00:15:45] that we will see de-flation in 2024.

[00:15:48] Right, thank you.

[00:15:49] And Lexi, I know you're gonna be starting to ramp up

[00:15:52] for compensation here at pay scale

[00:15:55] and then you'll probably think

[00:15:56] you're about market data and market trends right at the moment.

[00:15:59] So without giving too much away

[00:16:01] to any pay scale employees,

[00:16:02] you might be listening into comp and coffee.

[00:16:05] How are you seeing the trends?

[00:16:06] What are you thinking about as you're preparing budgets

[00:16:09] going into 2024?

[00:16:11] Yeah, I mean, I think everything that Amy said is spot on

[00:16:14] just from what we're thinking

[00:16:16] about internally we have kicked off budget season

[00:16:19] and I would say our budgets for 2024

[00:16:21] will look pretty similar to what they look like in 2023.

[00:16:24] There's a couple things that we always keep in mind

[00:16:26] for our cycles.

[00:16:27] One is what's the market impact

[00:16:29] and what has been the market impact.

[00:16:30] And so we'll do it at we are almost done

[00:16:33] with doing a market analysis

[00:16:34] heading into Q1 of 2024.

[00:16:36] We also obviously look from a fairness

[00:16:39] and equity standpoint on any adjustments

[00:16:41] that we might need to make from higher

[00:16:42] so that we've made through the year.

[00:16:43] But for our normal comp cycle,

[00:16:45] we are charging ahead as normal

[00:16:47] and I would say that salary budget survey that 3.8%.

[00:16:50] We're hovering right in there

[00:16:51] as well along with everyone else.

[00:16:53] And we have really intentionally even as we've made

[00:16:56] financial shifts within the organization

[00:16:58] really tried to keep that budget whole

[00:17:00] or more favorable because we know

[00:17:02] that that's such a big part of an employee's

[00:17:06] life cycle at the company.

[00:17:08] And then using all of the things

[00:17:09] that we've used in previous years

[00:17:11] around education and transparency

[00:17:13] and some of those things

[00:17:14] that goes right along with those budget conversations.

[00:17:16] Yeah, I mean, we've really seen pay jump as a key engagement issue

[00:17:21] in the last two years against this context

[00:17:24] of the cost of living crisis.

[00:17:26] So pace very much still on employees' mind

[00:17:28] because Amy said,

[00:17:29] real wages have still not really caught up.

[00:17:32] And it will take a while probably for prices

[00:17:34] to come down in line with falling inflation.

[00:17:37] So I think employees will be thinking

[00:17:40] very, how much was my increase going to be in 2024?

[00:17:43] So it looks like it would probably be good news

[00:17:45] for employees as we're predicting

[00:17:48] and employers really need to kind of be aware

[00:17:50] of that but there's no kind of easy

[00:17:52] kind of crop out in terms of,

[00:17:55] oh right, we're going into about economy

[00:17:56] or we may go into recession

[00:17:59] and therefore we can cut wages.

[00:18:00] So well, 2022, 2023 really have been

[00:18:04] from a labor market, employee, employer, hiring markets

[00:18:09] been pretty turbulent, Lexi.

[00:18:11] What were the key things that you've learned

[00:18:13] over this period in your role

[00:18:15] kind of as a chief people officer?

[00:18:17] Yes, turbulent is the right word I believe, Ruth

[00:18:21] and we talk about this all the time.

[00:18:23] But I think, listen, there's a couple of things

[00:18:26] that I think one of which I think is exciting,

[00:18:29] which is the headline that I always talk about

[00:18:31] which is I don't think there's ever been a more

[00:18:33] exciting and impactful strategic time to be in HR

[00:18:38] and the people functions.

[00:18:40] We are seeing in the chief people officer seat

[00:18:42] and just the teams in general,

[00:18:44] this is finally being treated as a business function.

[00:18:46] Ruth and Amy have heard me say this before.

[00:18:48] I'll withhold my personal feelings

[00:18:50] and why it took this long.

[00:18:51] But I'm excited, I think to see that recognition

[00:18:54] that speaks to the turbulence and the need

[00:18:56] and the criticality of this role in these teams

[00:18:59] through the last few years.

[00:19:00] I think, listen, if we've learned anything,

[00:19:03] it is you should not approach compensation

[00:19:05] or any of your people practices

[00:19:07] in the way that you did pre-pandemic.

[00:19:09] And in fact, it's a really, really healthy activity

[00:19:12] as a part of annual planning every single year

[00:19:15] to revisit exactly what you're doing,

[00:19:16] what has changed over the last 12 months.

[00:19:19] I think the market, the labor market, employee sentiment,

[00:19:22] all of these things are shifting faster than ever.

[00:19:24] And a lot of that is data being at folks' fingertips.

[00:19:27] And so it is on those functions

[00:19:29] to help guide the rest of the business along the way

[00:19:32] and support and utilize companies biggest asset,

[00:19:35] which is all of their people

[00:19:36] and all of their employees.

[00:19:37] I would also say overarchingly

[00:19:39] from a transparency standpoint.

[00:19:40] We talk about transparency a lot

[00:19:42] as it relates to paid transparency,

[00:19:44] transparency legislation.

[00:19:46] I think over the last few years,

[00:19:48] especially as companies have had to go down

[00:19:50] and headcount or make tough decisions around reductions,

[00:19:53] that transparency is a key pillar to their strategy

[00:19:57] is the thing that will keep your employees in seat.

[00:19:59] If your employees feel like you are being authentic

[00:20:01] and honest in real time as much as you can

[00:20:04] around what's going on within the business

[00:20:06] or what they can expect

[00:20:08] and your commitment to that transparency

[00:20:11] holds true when every single thing that you do,

[00:20:13] that's how you engage and retain your folks

[00:20:15] and pay them well and pay them fairly

[00:20:17] in all of those other pieces

[00:20:19] that I think just kind of come with an assumption

[00:20:21] of talking about compensation and all of us working at pay scale.

[00:20:24] But I do think that transparency is huge.

[00:20:27] And if you are a practitioner on this call,

[00:20:28] think about the ways in which you have

[00:20:31] or have not been kind of transparent

[00:20:33] with your employees and start to think about

[00:20:35] what that transparency looks like for you as an organization

[00:20:37] and you can always start small ones.

[00:20:40] I think it's going to be really interesting.

[00:20:41] We look back in kind of another three years time

[00:20:44] and look back on this five year period

[00:20:46] since the pandemic

[00:20:48] actually really reflect on how much has changed

[00:20:51] in terms of how we manage pay,

[00:20:54] how we manage people,

[00:20:55] how we hire people and how we engage people

[00:20:59] where we get people to work.

[00:21:01] It's probably when you're actually sit back

[00:21:03] and look at it, it's going to be really interesting

[00:21:04] to think wow did that really all happen

[00:21:06] in that short period of time?

[00:21:08] So okay well another thing we include in this report

[00:21:11] which I think is quite the fun couple of lists

[00:21:15] that we have is the hot jobs list Amy.

[00:21:18] Can you tell us about those two lists

[00:21:20] and few highlights from kind of what

[00:21:22] were the top trending jobs this year?

[00:21:25] I absolutely can, very excited about

[00:21:28] the hot jobs list this year.

[00:21:29] As you mentioned there are two lists.

[00:21:31] We provide a top list of jobs that people

[00:21:34] are looking to quit or are quitting

[00:21:37] which is heavily populated by healthcare positions

[00:21:40] and technology positions

[00:21:42] and you can see that full list in our report

[00:21:45] but the main list that we're spending more time on this year

[00:21:48] is the top in demand jobs by wage growth

[00:21:51] and that wage growth varies from 18% increase in wages

[00:21:57] from last year to 24%.

[00:21:59] So much higher than the 8% average

[00:22:02] that we're talking about when we talk about

[00:22:04] salary increases for the workforce as a whole.

[00:22:07] And this list interestingly this year

[00:22:10] includes a lot of highly skilled blue collar positions.

[00:22:13] It includes positions like master plumber,

[00:22:16] hairstylist, auto motive body repairer,

[00:22:20] AV technicians, animators and self employed positions

[00:22:25] like fitness coach would speak to some of the frustrations

[00:22:29] that people are feeling in the marketplace

[00:22:31] and their desire to be their own boss

[00:22:33] and run their own business.

[00:22:35] Also the most interesting one on the list

[00:22:37] from my perspective that made it this year is job coach

[00:22:41] or career coach.

[00:22:42] So there is a growing position out there

[00:22:45] and you'll see a lot of folks on LinkedIn

[00:22:46] who are offering career counseling services

[00:22:50] to people who are struggling to get hired

[00:22:53] who are looking to figure out what it is

[00:22:55] they wanna do with their lives

[00:22:57] and this was a big theme throughout the great resignation

[00:23:00] people really took stock of what am I doing with my life?

[00:23:04] What are my values?

[00:23:05] What would actually make me happy?

[00:23:07] Now I'm in a term that we are seeing more

[00:23:10] than marketplace is work life fit

[00:23:13] rather than work life balance.

[00:23:15] So rather than just thinking about the eight hours a day

[00:23:19] if you have worked that much

[00:23:21] that you spend at the job and having flexibility

[00:23:24] to eat dinner with your kids

[00:23:27] and spend time at home, it's more than that.

[00:23:29] It's about how the job fits into your life

[00:23:32] rather than how you make your life fit into the job.

[00:23:34] So there's a lot of soul searching

[00:23:37] and analysis, like self internal reflection

[00:23:39] that people are doing

[00:23:40] and job coaches are out there to help people figure that out

[00:23:43] to help them navigate the complexity

[00:23:45] and difficulty of the current job market

[00:23:49] and help people who are feeling burned out

[00:23:51] who feel that they're not valued

[00:23:53] really assess what it is they want from their lives

[00:23:57] and from their jobs and to get those things

[00:23:59] to position themselves well to go after those things.

[00:24:01] So I think that's a pretty exciting finding

[00:24:04] and from what I've seen from our hot drivers list

[00:24:07] in the past, it can be a bell weather.

[00:24:09] Compensation analyst was on the list two years ago.

[00:24:12] I think that that was a good indicator of things to come.

[00:24:15] That people can go into.

[00:24:17] Yeah, I was going to mention that Amy's gonna tell you

[00:24:20] when we close out in this episode

[00:24:22] where you can find that job report

[00:24:23] so you can see those lists

[00:24:24] but I had seen the last couple of weeks

[00:24:27] in New World at Work Report

[00:24:28] that highlighted the demand for compensation professionals

[00:24:32] over the last two to three years

[00:24:34] and that's probably their trending it back

[00:24:37] to the first pay transparency legislation

[00:24:39] that passed in Colorado

[00:24:42] and what they're showing is that now we need

[00:24:46] more compensation professionals

[00:24:47] to help organizations put in place

[00:24:50] those fundamentals of compensation

[00:24:52] that are required to make sure

[00:24:53] that you can enact pay transparency effectively

[00:24:57] so that you're not upsetting your internal employees

[00:24:59] when you're posting ranges

[00:25:00] and also making sure those ranges are competitive

[00:25:03] for you to be able to attract candidates.

[00:25:05] And I think their study was showing

[00:25:08] that they hadn't necessarily been a huge number

[00:25:11] of new entrants to the market

[00:25:12] and so that was obviously driving up pay.

[00:25:14] So good news for all of those compensation professionals

[00:25:17] listening into us today.

[00:25:20] So the third thing that I mentioned

[00:25:22] that we covered in this report is also predictions.

[00:25:25] So Amy worked with some of the thought leaders

[00:25:28] in the organization, one of those being you Lexi.

[00:25:31] So do you want to give us a sneak peek

[00:25:35] into kind of your top predictions for 2024?

[00:25:39] Yes, I would love to

[00:25:40] and I think this is an interesting one especially

[00:25:43] I think we've seen the market start to be

[00:25:45] a little bit more balanced

[00:25:47] and I think there were a lot of thoughts

[00:25:49] heading into this year to say

[00:25:52] well if the market gets really tough

[00:25:54] to employees lose some of that bargaining power

[00:25:57] that maybe they had before.

[00:25:58] And the answer through and through is no.

[00:26:01] I think employees still really hold that bargaining power

[00:26:05] and I think what that looks like

[00:26:07] is that they want leaders who really respect

[00:26:11] that flexibility, any autonomy that they've gained

[00:26:14] over the last few years

[00:26:15] and they want to workplace that reflects their own values

[00:26:18] personal values, any of those different things.

[00:26:20] I think as we look to 2024

[00:26:23] I think we will see the term work life balance

[00:26:26] maybe start to go away

[00:26:27] and maybe we'll index more heavily to work life fit

[00:26:30] which means that coming out of the last

[00:26:32] it is hard to believe by the way four years

[00:26:34] since 2020 and the beginning of the pandemic

[00:26:37] all of us I think have increasingly

[00:26:40] looked for jobs that fit our lives

[00:26:42] and reprioritized and rebalanced.

[00:26:45] We've talked Ruth you and I have talked

[00:26:46] I think a year ago around hustle culture is going away

[00:26:50] and now what does this really look like?

[00:26:51] And I think we will continue to see that in 2024

[00:26:54] instead of employees having to fit their lives

[00:26:57] around their jobs, they want a job

[00:26:58] that is going to fit well within their life

[00:27:00] and I think for HR leaders

[00:27:02] that means that we need to adapt to that shift

[00:27:05] because I think it will impact everything

[00:27:07] from total compensation packages

[00:27:08] to all other different facets of the employee life cycle.

[00:27:11] I think Ruth you mentioned a couple things next year

[00:27:14] obviously is an election year

[00:27:17] and I do think the labor economy will be a highly debated

[00:27:20] fuel heated topic as we go into next year

[00:27:23] you know we talked about that work life fit a little bit

[00:27:25] as well I don't think any recession will override that

[00:27:29] I think employees bargaining power is here to stay

[00:27:32] and we've got to get really comfortable with that

[00:27:34] and involving our employees in the solutions.

[00:27:36] I think labor unrest will continue

[00:27:39] so we'll continue to see labor strikes unionization

[00:27:42] some of those things may be continued to increase as well.

[00:27:45] I think what will continue to be a debate

[00:27:48] on this mandated return to work

[00:27:50] not return to work all of those different things

[00:27:52] I think mandating return to office will still be a struggle

[00:27:54] that speaks to the overarching theme

[00:27:56] that employees are looking for that flexibility.

[00:27:58] I think we'll continue to see that one size fits all

[00:28:01] means one size fits none from a benefits

[00:28:03] and reward standpoint which means they'll become

[00:28:05] I think more inclusive and varied

[00:28:07] depending on role, depending on the organization

[00:28:10] and I think we've all got to figure out

[00:28:12] how to get a little bit more in touch with our human side

[00:28:15] and so I think we'll continue to see human centered

[00:28:17] or crude and necessary in order to offset

[00:28:20] some of those talent shortages

[00:28:21] so I think it will continue to be a very interesting

[00:28:24] and probably continually turbulent year ahead of us

[00:28:27] especially as we think about everything being anchored

[00:28:30] in an election year but I think really

[00:28:33] if you are an HR leader on this call

[00:28:35] I would embrace some of that turbulence

[00:28:38] and make sure that you're talking to your employees

[00:28:40] and really deeply understanding what they're looking for

[00:28:42] and what they need and then helping them understand

[00:28:45] where the company can meet them from there

[00:28:46] and I think meeting your employees where you are

[00:28:49] maybe that's the mantra going into next year.

[00:28:53] Well does it sound like your job's gonna get any easier

[00:28:55] next year than next year?

[00:28:56] I don't think so.

[00:28:58] So I'm in for the fun.

[00:28:59] I'm in for the fun right?

[00:29:00] I'm in for the fun.

[00:29:01] Okay Amy, what about you?

[00:29:03] You compiled the report and you've been working with us all

[00:29:05] in terms of prediction.

[00:29:07] What's your top prediction for 24?

[00:29:10] Yeah not to overplay the point but I think there's going to be

[00:29:13] a lot of scrutiny on the talent market

[00:29:15] and hiring experiences in 2024.

[00:29:18] You don't want to lose your people

[00:29:20] so you need to pay them fairly

[00:29:21] and this is a great year to make up for some of the deficits

[00:29:24] of previous years if you can afford to do so

[00:29:27] when it comes to pay increases.

[00:29:30] Inflation again is coming down

[00:29:32] but we are still not in a deflationary period

[00:29:34] so people are really I think anticipating

[00:29:37] and hoping to make some money back

[00:29:39] and what they've lost over the last couple of years

[00:29:42] when inflation got as high as 9%.

[00:29:45] In 2022 which really hurts people especially

[00:29:48] at the lower end spectrum of wages.

[00:29:53] I also want to tell people that it's good to be aware

[00:29:58] that the spirit of the great resignation is still with us

[00:30:02] although we are technically out of the great resignation

[00:30:05] that feeling of wanting to have a better work experience

[00:30:09] is still very much with us

[00:30:10] and I think that's where job coaches

[00:30:12] are showing up on that top list of hot jobs.

[00:30:15] So as an employer really thinking about how you can provide

[00:30:19] positive employee experiences

[00:30:21] to give employees more autonomy over what their jobs are

[00:30:25] and how they show up at work

[00:30:28] can help alleviate some of that stress

[00:30:30] and some of that anxiety that people are feeling

[00:30:33] that causes them to have grasses, greeners and drum

[00:30:37] and hit the employment market

[00:30:39] looking for other opportunities.

[00:30:40] So as much as you can do to train managers on your culture

[00:30:44] and employee experiences and expectations

[00:30:46] I think that's gonna help with the talent markets

[00:30:50] simmering down and the economy hopefully growing

[00:30:53] if not beginning of 2024,

[00:30:56] your fingers crossed towards the end of 2024.

[00:31:00] Great, thank you.

[00:31:00] And we didn't even talk about AI

[00:31:02] and I know we've got quite a whole separate thing

[00:31:04] like that. I know we could talk a long time about AI.

[00:31:07] Well, thank you both very much for joining me today.

[00:31:11] As you can see quite a lot packed into that report

[00:31:14] the end of your report will be posted on pascale.com

[00:31:17] underneath our research and insights section

[00:31:20] and that goes live again on December 13th I think Amy

[00:31:24] so whenever you're listening to this episode

[00:31:26] you'll be able to go there

[00:31:27] and dig into that report for more.

[00:31:30] So thank you very much again

[00:31:31] so both of you for joining me.

[00:31:34] What do you think audience?

[00:31:36] Do you think we've missed anything?

[00:31:37] What's top of your priority list for 2024?

[00:31:41] If you haven't I will just do a quick shout out

[00:31:43] to our compensation best practice report.

[00:31:46] We are fielding,

[00:31:47] fielding for that at the moment

[00:31:49] and it's God that's the industry's largest compensation survey

[00:31:54] that will come out in the new year

[00:31:55] and we will spend time talking about that on one of our episodes

[00:31:58] but it's really your kind of like key guide

[00:32:01] to the trends of what happened in 23

[00:32:03] and what practitioner is planning to do in 2024.

[00:32:06] So please participate in that study as well

[00:32:08] and we'll share some of those results with you in the new year.

[00:32:12] Well thank you again, thank you very much

[00:32:13] and whatever you're doing over the festive period

[00:32:17] and whatever you're eating be it gingerbread or fudge

[00:32:21] please enjoy and thank you very much.