What Happens If the US Uses a Nuclear Weapon on Iran | Robert Pape

University of Chicago professor Robert Pape (Bombing to Win, The Escalation Trap) is back for his weekly read on the U.S.-Iran conflict — and this one goes to a darker place than usual. Pape lays out how Iran is quietly becoming an oil hegemon through the Houthis and Iraqi militias, why the IRGC's threat to "shock the world" might be a signal about Pickaxe Mountain, and what actually happens — militarily, economically, and politically — if the U.S. or Israel uses a tactical nuclear weapon to try to end it. Scott and Pape also cover the 5-stage escalation trap framework, the case for offshore balancing, a possible Korean-style armistice in Ukraine, and whether recent U.S. strikes could constitute war crimes.

Topics:

• 01:09 — Iran's rise as an oil hegemon
• 08:30 — Inside Pickaxe Mountain: can we even reach it?
• 14:59 — The case against a tactical nuclear strike
• 18:25 — Breaking the taboo: America as global pariah
• 24:48 — Political fallout and the road to a ground war
• 37:03 — The escalation trap, explained
• 46:08 — Europe, Ukraine, and the case for an armistice
• 52:00 — War crimes, morality, and power

Follow Robert Pape's analysis at escalationtrap.substack.com. Pape returns Thursday to preview his new book, Our Own Worst Enemies.

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