Trump is TRAPPED in Iran's "DIPLOMACY" | Robert Pape

[00:00:00] Iran continues to toy with the Trump administration while their president survives a trip to the United Nations General Assembly last week. France is joining the war with the Middle East as Europe braces for a devastatingly cold winter. Welcome to the At the Water's Edge podcast, where we look for insights beyond the headlines and take a practitioner's view on national security and geopolitics. We are back today with the one and only Robert Pape. If you've enjoyed this series with the Professor, please be sure to like, subscribe, share an episode with a friend. It really helps get the show to more people. And with that, let's get to Pape.

[00:00:31] Well, Professor, good morning and welcome back. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. Good morning, Scott. Great to have you on. So, a very interesting week with the war with Iran. We just had the UN General Assembly and there's so much stuff going on. It's hard to find the signal through the noise, but really cool interesting happened on Friday. We actually had a joint resolution from the Security Council. They agreed on something for the first time in I don't know how long. Condemning the Houthis, not Iran. And then we also saw this cool thing where the president of Iran is actually able to fly to the United Nations in New York.

[00:01:00] While the U.S. is at war with this country, this almost seems like a rare case validating the rules-based international order that those two things were able to happen last week. I'm glad you found a silver lining. I agree with you. You had to look pretty hard, but it's there. It's there. And the rules-based order, man, we haven't heard those phrases in a while. And boy, do we miss the... I'm trying to bring some happy news to these conversations.

[00:01:27] Well, and so as you know, Scott, because you've been on the Substacks, I've been talking about what's happened with the demise of the rules-based order. And for my classes at the University of Chicago, and keep in mind, I'm in like realist heaven at the University of Chicago. We get like, you know, we suck them in from all over the world. You know, you might not think they're realists in Brazil, but we got them here at the University of Chicago.

[00:01:53] So I am that realist who believes in stability. Because stability is how you get primacy. And primacy is built on economic power and things like that. So I really believe that we need stability. And so one of the talks I've been giving actually for several years now is how we will soon miss the rules-based order.

[00:02:18] And notice how last week was, as you said, a bit of a breath of fresh air. Because what we have is a situation where we are at war. And America has killed leaders of Iran multiple times and negotiators multiple times.

[00:02:39] And we managed to literally have them fly into the heart of the United States, New York City, and negotiate and then go home. I think that counts in this situation as a win for the rules-based order. Now, unfortunately, we might in very soon order be talking about things where we won't remember that very well. Because things could dominate this pretty soon.

[00:03:08] But it is the case. And it is better to talk. And it doesn't mean talking is going to lead you to a resolution. I'm skeptical about the resolution that's coming. But it was a breath of fresh air. And it's worth pausing and thinking about that. Yeah, well, speaking of talking, you know, the U.S. and the Iranian coalitions were able to talk for a few hours last week.

[00:03:35] Iran actually proposed a deal, you know, seven days to end the war, essentially. Even throughout there, the president said, we'll let nuclear inspectors back into the country. It's like, that's an interesting thing to say out loud. Yeah, it's literally dangling the Memorandum of Understanding, the MOU points. There were 14 points, but really essentially 11 action items there in that MOU. And that is what Iran is doing.

[00:04:04] They're dangling those issues out there. However, it comes with a big caveat, which is upfront down payments here. So unlike when the MOU occurred on June 17th, that's how long ago it's been, three months ago. On June 17th, there was no upfront payment demanded by the United States.

[00:04:33] So Iran, the United States, they mutually stood down their respective essentially naval blockades. And that was what was the down payment. It was and then the forces did not have to leave the region. So it was just literally stop, stop, stop shooting.

[00:04:53] And that advantaged the United States in the short term because then you had that outpouring almost within hours. You had ships pouring out of the Gulf, basically getting out of jail. And that was when the price of oil was last down in the 70s.

[00:05:16] So we need to recall now the price of oil is, I think when I checked Brent on Friday, it was like 104 or something like that. So it's up, it's up there. So it's, it may be 99, but the point is it's not 71 or 72 or 73. So, so that whole issue then advantaged Iran in the long term because Iran promised it wouldn't charge fees for the first 60 days.

[00:05:43] That is these tolls we're talking about. So you could see there was a short term, long term quid pro quo. Now I was always skeptical that was going to be enough to hold this thing together. And sure enough, it broke apart almost immediately. The United States started to violate different parts of the MOU. Iran was right there behind them violating different parts. I mean, so you could, we have this debate who is to blame for breaking the MOU.

[00:06:12] And the realist in me is saying it's the balance of power. So, so, you know, so I realized that's not frustrating. That's frustrating for people that want to be on team Iran. I actually am on team America, but still it's frustrating for that, for that, because I'm explaining that given the two sides are not agreeing. And also you can throw in, by the way, Israel, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.

[00:06:40] So multiple sides are not agreeing with the balance of power in the region, what it should be. Then it's no surprise. There's no stability to these negotiations. And that's the reality underneath diplomacy. There, there's a great book by Paul Kennedy. People can go look it up. I read it as a graduate student in the 1980s, the realities behind diplomacy. And guess what that reality is? Balance of power. So you, yes.

[00:07:08] I always thought it was interesting that Kissinger called his book diplomacy. Ah, yes. That is a very interesting pairing. Yes, it is. So, so Kissinger, and this is true of also a name, Richard Holbrook. People will know from the 90s in his book, How to Win a War. We are, we, we can't help it, but stress what we do in our own jobs as being very important.

[00:07:36] I think it's just human nature, Scott. I'm sure I do it. Other people do it. Uh, Kissinger does it where he's emphasizing his brilliant diplomacy. Same with Richard Clark, by the way. And that works really well, um, in selling, oh, a good 10 or 20 million books. And, um, so it's, it's a real winner. We've previously discussed, we do book tours in America better than anybody else. We have all the best book tours.

[00:08:05] All the best. Yep. Yep. And it's the art of the deal, even if it's not the art of the deal. You just say it's the art of the deal. Uh-huh. It works. So Kissinger says it's diplomacy and magically it was diplomacy. I didn't see the chapter in there on carpet bombing. Um, that was curious, a curious, uh, omission, but it was interesting. Well, there's a famous, there's a famous thing that happened. And for your audience, they may, they may appreciate this where, uh, Kissinger was from

[00:08:33] Harvard and, um, uh, during the bombing of Cambodia, this was a big deal in the Vietnam war. A lot of the left was, was apoplectic about it, but also put people in the middle, in the middle too, because it seemed to be this widening of the war when we should be winding down the war. It's a little bit like the lessons for today. Well, a, uh, group of Harvard professors led by Thomas Schelling, his, uh, Kissinger's

[00:08:58] former, like, uh, co-partner at certain centers at Harvard, they came and Kissinger met with them and they read Kissinger, the riot act and all these sophisticated ways about how this was going the opposite direction of what should be happening in the, in the Vietnam war. And they were going to go public and he, and Kissinger said, no, no, no, no, just hold on. Just give me two days, two days. And I'm going to, I'm going to do that.

[00:09:27] I'm going to really do this. And so I don't know. I don't really think they gave him the two days. I don't think he did anything in the two days, but the bottom line is that this, this issue with Kissinger, this was the diplomacy that he's talking about. How do you finagle and handle all these prima donnas in a room? And Kissinger was very good at it. A very good at a little bit like Trump. Trump knows how to blow smoke at you and, and how to, how to kiss up to you when he wants something from you. So did Kissinger.

[00:09:57] It was a, it's a real art of how you have diplomacy with, with prima donnas. Yeah. Well, are you surprised at all that, you know, the U S didn't go for Iran's deal last week? Do you think there was any real chance there? Do you think Iran thought they would be taken seriously? It would have been another nail in the coffin of Trump. So let me, let me explain that a little bit, because I, I think that didn't come across

[00:10:24] on any of the legacy media that I, I saw last week on this and actually not much on the, the, the, the, the social media world here. And here's what I mean by that. So if you have that deal where you have to pay up front, whether it's, um, a hundred billion up front, 50 billion up front, 10 billion up front. It's not really the quantity, Scott.

[00:10:50] It's just literally America paying up front that that's just another point or two loss for Trump in the election. So that is part and parcel. I believe of, uh, Iran's basic strategy to wreck the Trump administration going into the midterm. So, you know, Scott, you've been with me so many times in person, so many, and, and, and

[00:11:18] a lot of your listeners will, will know I've been arguing since June 15th, really that a whole new strategy was about to unfold by Iran. It was driven by the incentive structures of the declining of the, uh, U S strategic petroleum reserve. You could just see it, uh, coming and that would create, um, a different world. And that's why I didn't think the MOU was going to hold. That's why I thought Iran would go on the offensive, which it did.

[00:11:45] And that's why I thought it would have as its strategy to wreck the Trump presidency permanently or irrevocably, uh, through the midterms where the idea here is try to drive up the prices of, um, uh, in the United States gas. And now of course that's happened like literally, that's what I was able to kind of predict exactly the timing of when that would happen. Um, and got it within a week or two.

[00:12:12] And then also going further, like, well, it's not just about costs. You want to also take away this idea, this image of, uh, Trump has a strategy of victory that's really working for the United States. Well, if you, if Trump has to literally bribe Iran, um, with billions and billions of dollars up front where there's no guarantee Iran will, will, will come through. This is the problem.

[00:12:41] There's, I mean, Trump can send, um, uh, money, gold, whatever, crypto, whatever it is to Iran. And then Iran pockets it, puts it in Chinese banks and it's got the money. That money cannot be like blown up or something. And suddenly Iran can say, well, you know, we changed our mind on that. You didn't do enough of dot, dot, dot, dot, dot. And that puts Trump that in, and actually, even if they don't welch on the deal, that very

[00:13:10] possibility is, would just look horrible for Trump with MAGA. So it just looks again and again, like, um, uh, Trump is, is being wrapped around the little finger of, uh, of, uh, of, um, Iran has Trump wrapped around his, their little fingers. And this just is, is not the way you, you gain votes and you gain support. And it's really not that MAGA will turn.

[00:13:37] I don't believe for, for a moment, many MAGA, maybe some Republicans, like 10% of Republicans might vote Democrat here, but I don't believe MAGA is actually literally going to vote Democrat. I think there's going to stay home. I think they're going to stay home. So I think this was just part and parcel of Iran's strategy to wreck Trump in the midterms. Uh, he's lose, lose. It's lose, lose for Trump. As I've been trying to explain that the Iranians are putting Trump literally on the horns of

[00:14:06] different dilemmas and they're lose, lose. He, he can, he can do it or not. And whether he, if he does it, he loses, if he doesn't, he loses. And, uh, and it's about the midterms and his power position in MAGA. That's that issue. It's not winning over the Democrats. That's never going to happen. And it's not even at this point winning over many of the independents, but if Trump loses

[00:14:34] the confidence of say a third of MAGA, uh, or so then, and you're already starting to see this with Mike Rogers in Michigan. Uh, he's a Senate candidate for Michigan, a very, you know, sort of committed Republican who's suddenly distancing himself from Trump. Well, that on the Iran war, by the way, um, that then portends to much bigger losses of Republican support in January, February, and so forth.

[00:15:02] Uh, Pete Hayes says, you know, uh, he might not just be impeached. He might be removed from office. Uh, and that, that we've not done that to a secretary of defense. So it's a thing. And by the way, yes, I know it's supposed to be secretary of war, but my goodness gracious. So, but still we've never done that, um, here in our country's history. So this is going to be a big deal. Uh, and I think there's a very good chance.

[00:15:26] He, he just barely, Hegseth just barely got through Senate confirmation by the skin of his teeth. And that was going to, and that's almost two years ago. So before the Iran war, now you go through this and I think there's, there's an extremely good chance that Hegseth will be impeached by the house, uh, in, in a veto proof, um, majorities here, two thirds.

[00:15:51] And I think there's an extremely good chance he will be removed veto proof majority from the, uh, uh, with the Senate and we'll see if he, he rides it out. I mean, he may, he may decide to ride it out and see if he can, you know, cause, uh, it's, it's, uh, but this is where we're heading here. And that's just the beginning. This is not that that's, that's just the beginning. That's scalp one year. This is, this is, uh, and so Trump has an enormous amount at stake.

[00:16:21] As, as, uh, we go through the next several months. So obviously the whole world is, you know, well, most of the world other than Israel is mad at us right now where this war with Iran and how Trump's handling it and strong aligned structures and tariffs in the whole nine yards. Do you think there's actually something restorative about the American brand in the world? If the Democrats do come in and start holding people, the Trump administration, like Pete Tagseth responsible, um, without restore American reputation.

[00:16:49] There is, there is, but this is a multi-year project. This is not a reclamation project over a weekend where, uh, once, uh, for instance, um, as I'm explaining, uh, with Tagseth, uh, yes, the world will be, will be somewhat happy, more relieved. I would say, because that they think that would then put sand in the gears of worse things to come, but the, um, but actually to start to turn that around. So let me, let me just build on that a little bit.

[00:17:17] Um, and the, uh, uh, as you know, Scott, uh, because you've attended some of these private sessions, um, I'm starting to look beyond January. I'm looking a little bit more into, so I've been, I've been keeping my forecast to January and I'm now starting to, to, to look beyond that. Well, once you do look beyond January on the economic front, things get pretty dark, pretty

[00:17:47] fast, and there's not any real, um, uh, there's not options here. It's not like there's no good options. There's just no options here. So we've, we're out of options. We're using, we've used, so what I mean by that is we really are, uh, seeing now the consequences of supply shortages, uh, real constraints, uh, real diesel prices going up. These are going to continue.

[00:18:15] Uh, even if Iran doesn't make it worse, and I think there's a good chance they're going to make it worse. Once we get into the winter where you need heating oil, gas, uh, Europe in particular, is going to be sucking a lot of that out of the system, uh, because they have not refilled their stocks as a result of the Iran war. So the, the, um, it's not just the SPRs, the strategic petroleum reserves, all of the normal

[00:18:43] refilling of stockpiles to get through winters where there's known higher demand and the option to have, and I've talked about home heating, uh, lowering home heating demand, uh, means, uh, people will freeze. So let's just be clear about that. That is not like we miss McDonald's. This is that we're coming into these, these are going to be much tougher times. And even if you lower your heat into the fifties, you'll say, well, okay, you're not going to die. Are you?

[00:19:13] No, it's good chance. When you get the flu, you'll get much sicker. So things like that are what we're talking about here as we get into the winters, it will not be as bad in the United States. Um, but Canada, uh, this is going to be an issue with Europe. This is, um, and so this is going to start to become a real thing. And as we get into that, then these consequences, when you say, well, the world will forgive us. Well, we got, there's a lot of pain to go through.

[00:19:42] We we've held back a lot of the pain in the Iran war, and it's only now beginning to be felt. And the way I describe it visually is we're on the Titanic. We're just beginning to hit the iceberg. And it was a Brown labor day, end of August, when that was going to begin. And that was what I, what I was saying on the escalation trap. And that is what happened, but that's not the end of it. We haven't even fully hit the iceberg yet, much less have the real costs that are coming.

[00:20:10] Uh, those are now unfolding. And as we get into the winter, these are going to be even more extreme. And the, uh, the economist, Jeff Curry, as you know, he's been on our, our, our sub stacks here. We've had these meetings and so forth. Uh, he is now really ringing the bell about the winter and there's no real off ramps here because our strategic petroleum reserves already been run down to fumes.

[00:20:36] Uh, if we go down much lower, it's likely that walls will start to cave in. And that's why we're at the plateauing it. Uh, it's not, if Trump was going to, um, uh, dip further into the petroleum reserves here, you'd think he would do it now since the gas prices are going like that. Diesel's going like that. And the fact that the U S strategic petroleum reserve is plateauing in, in September, that

[00:21:03] tells you that they're taking that risk pretty seriously because if you were to have a story before the midterms that one of the 60 caverns in our SPR collapse, oh my God, that's not that price of gas would go up, but so too would panic go up. So, so that's why I think they're, they're plateauing, but this is, this is why it's going to be a multi-year reclamation project, uh, with the world.

[00:21:30] And it's because the costs yet have been, we basically have been holding them back. And so as they unfold this winter, this will be the real winter of reckoning. We will know what the actual costs are going to be by like, say Easter, April for real. And not before we're not before the, the, everything you're seeing now with the price of oil, these are the, this is the best it's going to be.

[00:21:57] Um, this is not the worst it's going to be. And I think there is a chance that Iran will, will, you know, twist the knife again. Um, because this, this is a, there's, they want revenge too. I mean, this isn't, it's, it's partly realism one-on-one that's driving Iran. It's also simply pure revenge. Uh, and they're, they're very, you saw this with 10 plus million people pour out it to, uh, at the Supreme leader's death. This is not going away.

[00:22:27] This, this, this anger doesn't disappear. It's like our nine 11. We didn't get less angry a year and a half after nine 11, we got more angry. And that's why 70% of America went into Iraq. It was nine 11. It's not because they had classified intelligence. It was never there anyway. No, they just wanted another scout and we did it, but that it's, it wasn't smart. It wasn't realists, but that's the power of nationalism emotion.

[00:22:57] That's in Iran too. That's in Iran too. I know our time, but do you have time for some questions? I do. I do. Uh, well, this one's for me cause I'm looking at France announced that they're sending troops into Saudi Arabia to help defend it against Houthi attacks. Oh, I didn't see that. France announced that. Yeah. I saw this morning, um, uh, notification of France, President Macron, they're considering it, um, mobilizing troops. It's any of their radar systems, air defense. Well, that's a pretty big step. That seems huge. Yeah.

[00:23:27] That's a big step. How far does Europeans pending oil crunch, how much can that actually drag Europe into this war? Cause now we have Italy and France. Well, this would be a real, well, this would be sucking in, um, Europe in a couple of ways. Um, the most, the most direct issue is, uh, that the Houthis, it would not be, uh, you know, sort of outside the realm of, of the Houthis to think about terrorist attacks in Paris.

[00:23:55] So right off the bat, you're going to put military troops. So let's go back to dying to win my 20 years of working on suicide terrorism. Um, and Scott, this is my week when my daughter's getting married. Now you're telling me we got to do another sub stack. So, okay. So no, we're not missing the wedding. Just pointing that out, folks. Hey, I'm just here. We'll follow in the news. I know. I'm just letting the world know that professor Pappes daughter's getting married. There will be a ceremony. Okay.

[00:24:23] Um, so anyway, grandkids, there's a thing called grandkids. Yes. Um, well, not yet, but we're, so we're, but the, but anyway, back to this. So the, the serious issue here is that, um, once you put ground forces in and that there's, there's more escalation, uh, here. So I, I, I'm, uh, uh, I, uh, we can talk about the tactical advantages, whether Macron's, uh, France's ground forces, uh, they have been in mall.

[00:24:53] Their, their French have done some and what they have done in Northern Africa and Africa has provoked a lot of terrorism. So that is the history of that, of France going back in the last 20 years. So it's not above France or beyond France to do this. Uh, but it is also not to, uh, just about the tactical operational issues with the Houthis. Um, I think that this just right off the bat, I, uh, let's see what kind of concept of operations

[00:25:20] they have because the Houthis are a very tribal organization. They're decentralized. You have to beat the tribes one by one by one by one. That's what happened in Afghanistan. So once you're involved in a tribal, uh, situation where it's an amalgamation, almost an alliance system of tribes that are, that we call the Houthis, uh, here, this is a set

[00:25:44] of, um, uh, I gave a, I gave a presentation on this on the, um, uh, uh, uh, pape on the politics of force YouTube. So if people are interested in it, they go see, it's called the escalation in Yemen and you'll see what I'm talking about, about the Houthis. Well, anyway, um, but what that means is you're in for a slog here. This is not a, the house of cards collapses situation.

[00:26:08] Think of it more an Afghanistan situation and it will mean, um, a slog over time. And it means if you gain a foothold, like we did in say Kandahar, or we had certain, um, outposts that we controlled along the ring road, we can do that. Uh, but that doesn't mean we're breaking the whole system. And over time you might get congealing as happened in Afghanistan against us.

[00:26:37] So the operational issues right off the bat are like Afghanistan, but also France here, um, the issue of terrorist attacks in Paris or, or also, uh, airliners, the Houthis will have the ability, um, to shoot down airliners. And so this is what we're talking about. So if we're, we're going to have Western Europe actually literally, um, get involved, it's,

[00:27:05] it's, uh, it's, it's not all the way president Trump has painted is we want you there. Well, okay. We, we, we know what this looks like. And what this looks like is, uh, all these consequences I just laid out. So this is a pretty big decision by Macron. Um, and it will probably be easy to slide under the radar because we have so many things to worry about right now, Scott, we're having a hard time because it's, it's like, there's

[00:27:33] so many things it's becoming white noise to so many people. Uh, and, um, uh, and that I think probably includes our professionals. It's just a lot here. And this is the problem with this war. Yeah. I was thinking too, if Italy and France are both sending their limited assets to get involved into a war with the Middle East, they have their own bureaucratic attention span. If that's getting sucked in, that draws away from Ukraine. That impacts Russia. Oh yeah. This is mine up from heaven.

[00:28:02] This is, oh, this would be like, oh my God, you know, Putin is probably sending Christmas cards now to, I mean, just, uh, bite up to the Moscow, uh, the Kremlin. Send oil. Send oil. Send oil. Yeah, exactly. Send them some oil. You know, that'll, no, this is, this would be a, I mean, this is, you know, Putin is in so much trouble right now that, uh, he's, this would be perfect. I mean, he needs Europe to be strategically overstretched. Yeah.

[00:28:31] Um, here's a question from somebody who does some shady stuff for a living. Uh, why would Iran, I'll leave it at that. Uh, I got it. Thanks for joining folks. The rest of the Q and a with the professor will be available today for members of the briefing room, which you can sign up for on the show's YouTube page. It'll be released as a standalone video for regular subscribers, uh, later on this week. Please be sure to like, subscribe, share an episode with a friend. See y'all later.