The U.S. Is Losing Control | Robert Pape on Iran, China, and the Escalation Trap

[00:00:00] The President has launched Project Freedom to try to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Hezbollah has spiked its drone attacks against Israel and Lebanon. And Iran is approaching Pakistan and Turkey, a U.S.-NATO ally, to try to get around the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. What does all this mean for the ongoing conflict? Well, today we have Part 7 of our ongoing series, The Escalation Trap, with Professor Robert Pape from the University of Chicago. With that, let's get to the professor. And as always, please like, subscribe, and share with a friend.

[00:00:28] Well, good morning and welcome back to the podcast. Thanks for having me again, Scott. So last week we talked about how not much had been going on. So you're checking in this morning. This week we've got Iran proposed a new peace deal. Trump told them to shove it. Instead, he announced Project Freedom, which I'm sure will solve all the problems. We're going to escort ships through the Straits of Hormuz. Breaking news this morning, Iran's claiming to obstruct a U.S. warship. The CENTCOM says it doesn't happen. We'll see what the truth is eventually.

[00:00:58] Yesterday, Hezbollah had an increase in drone attacks against Israel. Massive spike, so that ceasefire is going great. And Iran is approaching Pakistan and Turkey to increase their overland land trade, since the Straits aren't going so hot right now. Pakistan has opened up six border crossings, which doesn't seem like it's going great for us, since they're the key mediator between us and Iran. Haven't seen Turkey's response yet, but this is somehow driving Iran and Turkey closer together.

[00:01:25] Turkey's second largest army in NATO, I think eighth or ninth largest army in the world, and houses a number of American nuclear weapons. So I'm sure that'll all work itself out fine. Is there anything I'm missing? No, no, this is all great. I love the fact you like to start with sort of what are the kind of most important things that have just happened in detail.

[00:01:45] The big picture here, Scott, is that what you are seeing with the new operation by President Trump is he's trying to regain control of a situation that he has lost. He's lost control now, not only in the Gulf, but he's lost control with Europe. He's on the brink of going to China, where he may lose more control there.

[00:02:08] And he's lost control with the negotiations that Iran has been engaged with, not so much with the United States as with other countries. And it's reflected in your comments. So the absolute big picture here is that over the last week, it's become manifestly clear, not just to the smart observers, but the leaders of the world.

[00:02:33] And now even to the Trump administration, that they are losing ground. You call it credibility, influence, power in multiple regions of the world. And you see this in the Gulf. You see this with Iran's negotiations with, say, Pakistan and Russia.

[00:02:57] And I believe the last time we were on, I was pointing out that we had to really pay attention to what was going to happen between Iran and Pakistan because they're adjacent territorially. And so one way to evade the blockade economically for Iran would be to have land routes, do more over land into Pakistan. And it may be that was what the key, one of the key issues they were in dialogue with, with Pakistan.

[00:03:26] And that appears to be manifesting itself. Well, but then we don't have to just stay focused on the region. Let's kind of go open the aperture a little bit. And you see Meritz's comment. This was shortly after we left each other. Essentially saying that Trump had been humiliated by Pakistan. And what he says, Trump has been humiliated.

[00:03:53] He is, in fact, humiliating Trump by saying that. So so this is not simply a reporter or an academic like me making a comment. This is a world leader using those terms. And then the Trump administration felt the sting. They definitely felt the sting. And that's why Trump almost immediately responded by saying, well, we're going to yank thousands, 5,000 troops out of Germany.

[00:04:20] Well, you might say, OK, that's showing who's who, except we need Europe if we're going to continue to project power into the Middle East. The power, those troops in Rammstein aren't just simply sitting there. They're providing essentially an aircraft carrier for us as we project power into the Middle East.

[00:04:45] So if NATO comes disintegrates, if, in fact, U.S. troops come out of Europe, this is cutting off our nose to spite our face. This is not really going to work to the building American power, American credibility with the world. It is going the other way around. And then, as I said, President Trump is scheduled on May 14th to go and have a face to face discussion with Xi.

[00:05:11] Well, given how badly the war is going, how much power Iran is gaining, Xi, in this case, will also be in the driver's seat and can reasonably expect that Trump will have to accept him demanding reductions in something like, to give you a specific example, future economic or military assistance to Taiwan.

[00:05:37] Well, if that were to happen, then this would be yet another turn of the unraveling of America's influence in a different theater of the world. So altogether, the Iran war is almost the inverse of the end of the Cold War. When the Cold War ended in 1990, it was the Soviet Union who was struggling.

[00:06:00] But as they struggled, their influence collapsed or withdrew rather dramatically in multiple regions of the world at the same time. Here, you see that the United States is militarily not because of our troops. I want to be very, very clear. The troops are doing a splendid job, but we are nonetheless losing the war with Iran.

[00:06:23] And as we lose the war, our power and influence and authority is declining in multiple different regions of the world. And we really haven't seen that since the Vietnam War. And this is promising to get worse. So what does that mean for the Trump administration? They're actually, I think, recognizing all this. And that's why I think they've come up with this idea to escalate. So basically, they're on the escalation track.

[00:06:52] I told you we're at a fork in the road. They're choosing to go toward escalation. But they'd also like Iran to throw the first punch. And we'll see if, you know, Iran claimed to throw a first punch. And then we said, no, they didn't. So we'll see how this unfolds. But the bottom line is, this isn't just happening willy-nilly or out of a context. We are losing a war.

[00:07:17] As we lose a war, our prestige and authority is going down in multiple regions of the world at the same time that we have not seen here, at least since the collapse of the Vietnam in Vietnam. And this is now causing the Trump administration to lurch toward escalation. That's the big picture. Quick note before we continue. I'm launching a paid tier on YouTube called The Briefing Room.

[00:07:46] Each week, I'll post a private briefing with my assessment of the national security and geopolitical issues that matter most. Some weeks, that'll be a real-time update on what's changed and what to watch next. Others, it'll be a deeper strategic breakdown. Things like, what happens if Iran gets a nuclear weapon? How do blockades change global power? And how does the conflict impact American strategy? The main show stays free. The Briefing Room is for folks who want one more layer of analysis direct from me.

[00:08:14] Members also get early access to episodes before they go public. You can join through the membership tab on the YouTube channel. If our prestige and influence around the world continues to shrink, is this something that a following administration could correct? Or is some of this shrinkage irreversible? Oh, we're well past the point where it's reversible with simply a new administration. So, a couple of points here.

[00:08:41] Number one, the world has watched us re-elect Donald Trump twice. Now, we may well say, well, he can't be re-elected a third time. But that doesn't mean that more unreliable administrations can't come into being. And also, by the way, on the left. So, this doesn't necessarily break down into, well, gee, only if we had a Democrat in office.

[00:09:09] This is now much, much more difficult simply because, number one, we re-elected Donald Trump twice. Number two, the countries now are moving on their own dime. They're not just watching anymore. They're taking more and more assertive action. Germany is, I think, a very key, you call it a canary in the coal mine here.

[00:09:37] They not only, the Chancellor of Germany, the leader of Germany, didn't just simply come out with a statement. That's what got the most attention. But Germany recently has come out with a new paper, a new strategy for its defense going forward. And that new strategy has a couple of very interesting points in it. Number one, maybe not so surprised, they're calling for doing more on their own. And you say, well, that's in line with what Trump has been calling for. That's true.

[00:10:05] But there's also calling for Germany to be the leader in Europe. So this is now going beyond simply increasing percentages or shifting funds to defense from other purposes inside of Germany. They're developing a broader strategy.

[00:10:27] And as countries develop a broader strategy, they rarely want to take the second seat to other countries in their region. So that is going to start to have some ripple effects. Now, this is still the beginning. I don't want to overread this. But this is the ripple effects that make what you said irreversible, irreversible. Because now consequences are going to start to happen.

[00:10:52] And you're going to start to see that as we go forward, they are going to, meaning the Europeans and countries in Asia and countries in the Gulf, they are more and more going to make decisions on their own without consulting the United States, without some even worrying about the United States. They're just going to move forward.

[00:11:17] And this is not just simply reversible with a new administration because this is a supertanker. Things are actually moving forward. If the Trump administration, for example, had wanted to sort of make this a little less consequential with the spat with Germany, they could have, for example, moved the 5,000 troops from Germany to Poland. For example, that would have softened the blow.

[00:11:46] Now, it wouldn't have stopped it altogether, but it would have softened the blow. That, of course, would have alienated Russia even more, just to sort of show you the tensions here. And, of course, the Trump administration is nowhere near committed to the defense of Ukraine that the Biden administration was. So I'm just pointing out that as we go forward here, these steps that are occurring, America is losing ground and credibility in multiple regions of the world.

[00:12:16] That's the big news of the week. And the Trump administration is trying to respond with the only lever they have left, which is to try to resurrect a losing war on the battlefield. But how are they really going to do that? Congress is already upset that they're past their 60 days. So you can start to see setting it up. So there's a pretext a la Gulf of Tonkin, 1964.

[00:12:44] Get the other side to shoot first. Do something that you can at least claim that. Now you're starting to see the difficulty of even going down the escalation track. Wow. We're in quite a mess, Scott. And this is not going to be fixed by – this is really all mana from heaven for Iran, Russia, for Xi. I think Pakistan is completely happy with this.

[00:13:13] They're gaining influence and power. So there's a power vacuum. As America has lost power, there's a vacuum. And what you're seeing is not just one state, but a number of states are jumping right in for their piece of that pie. And they're not looking to Donald Trump to say, oh, can we somehow help out the United States here? That's actually – if it's on the list at all, it's pretty far down the totem pole. Yeah. I do occasional news segments in Pakistan.

[00:13:43] For some reason, I'm big in Pakistan. But what they talk about in the newsroom when, you know, the cameras aren't running is quite remarkable. The folks over there, some of them are concerned. But just as many of them are absolutely giddy over the opportunities that they're seeing right now. Because, yeah, they might lose the United States as an ally. But what they'd gain in return with being a deal breaker with Iran and influence over trade through China, they are just as happy with that card in their neck.

[00:14:09] Well, and they may decide – I mean, if you start to play this from Pakistan's hand, 2002, they were providing centrifuges to Iran. So they might see themselves as steering the nuclear development of the region in different ways. That is a lot of influence here. That, by the way, may in some ways slow down the nuclear development of Iran, but may accelerate it in other countries.

[00:14:38] So Pakistan here, as it's moving into the vacuum and starting to feel its oats a little bit, one of the things to keep an eye on is not just that they're geographically adjacent to Iran and can help Iran offset some of the economic costs of the U.S. blockade,

[00:14:58] but again, having a thumb on the scale of nuclear development in the region, this is not a small card. This is a very influential card. Pakistan's program is very well along. They have a lot of experience here. There's going to be a number of countries, including Iran, that are going to want to benefit from that experience.

[00:15:22] And so I think that as time goes on, this is what it means when America loses control. I've been worrying about this literally from the opening days on the Substack. I have articles called The Illusion of Control. The Illusion of Control and saying that this is what's going to be lost, that it's just going to be hard to get your fingers around.

[00:15:52] But that's what you're seeing. And as Trump tries to get it back, he doesn't have too many ways to get it back except with a military victory. And I'm not saying he's going to get that victory either. But I'm saying that this is what's behind the desperate gamble. People keep thinking, well, Trump couldn't possibly want to escalate because all the military options are bad.

[00:16:18] Well, Scott, a good case that we should think about here is Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor. You see, it was a big puzzle at the time why Japan would attack America at Pearl Harbor, because it seemed like a complete losing proposition here. And Yamamoto, the leader, even was publicly saying it was not a good idea, even though he led the attack.

[00:16:44] Well, once we got the documents from the occupation, and there's a number of good books here. There's the original history, Tojo and the Coming of War. Then there's a great article by the political scientist Bruce Russett here. He was a Yale political scientist, and he put this more in political science speak. But what he explained in the article was not just the history. What he explained was that what Japan was looking at were a set of options.

[00:17:14] And the option of doing nothing in the fall of 1941 was going to be defeat. It was a trajectory of defeat, certain defeat. And there's reasons for that. But what they did was they took a risk where defeat was only likely. So this was the gamble that they had. They had a set of very bad choices.

[00:17:41] Either they do nothing, and they're sinking to the bottom for sure, including the collapse of their governments and so forth. Or they take this high-risk gamble that they do basically a brushback pitch on the United States. And then the United States would get tied up in a war in Germany. Germany would tie us down, that kind of thing. And maybe, maybe they could come out of this thing. But that's where the Trump administration is.

[00:18:08] It's not in a situation where they have a high probable course of action that is like 60% likely to succeed. This is not the game anymore. This is what I was worried about in the Foreign Affairs piece. I published that eight weeks ago. I was saying, this is going to be the problem. That they should cut the deal now. Get out now after week one. Because what's going to happen is they're going to get into the Japanese dilemma.

[00:18:38] And that's what you're seeing with Trump. He's desperate now. And that's why I think he took the gamble over the weekend. I've been saying this for a long time. That this is where we were heading. And he just can't get out of this thing called the escalation trap. And what that means is, despite the fact that it looks horrible in terms of probabilities, it's the best he's got. And that's bad for all the rest of us. At the Water's Edge is supported by Grayzone Advisory.

[00:19:08] Grayzone helps businesses and organizations understand geopolitical risk before it becomes a crisis. If your company is exposed to conflict, supply chain risk, defense markets, or international instability. Grayzone provides executive briefings, strategic analysis, and decision support to help leaders understand what is changing and what to do next. Learn more at grayzoneadvisory.com. Why do you think that we haven't seen Congress get more involved here?

[00:19:35] Because, yeah, we got some people kicking and screaming that we've gone past 60 days for the War Powers Act. But even just the fact that Congress would allow the executive branch to drag us into a war with Iran seemingly in contradiction to its own constitutional powers, it's still mind-boggling that we have an entire branch of government that seems to be abduscating from their own responsibilities here. Well, it's disillusioning. It's disappointing, Scott.

[00:20:02] However, as tragic as it is, it's completely expected and predictable because those 535 members of Congress are essentially their own little sovereign decision makers. And what they're doing is tacking for their own future survival, not the survival of the country. And that is just, it's really disillusioning.

[00:20:27] It's one of the things that makes it really, I'm very lucky that when I was 22 and coming out of college, for a hot second I thought, oh, maybe I should try to get into politics and so forth. I am so lucky to be in the world I'm in. I get to help, but I don't have to go through these, and I don't have to. But the bottom line is they don't want to be tarred with failure. It's the same reason our allies don't want to hook up with us here.

[00:20:54] You're not seeing any, the allies are not just failing to rush to help us. They're staying as far away from this disaster as they possibly can because what they're seeing, it's a, you know, success has a hundred fathers and defeat is an orphan, that basic idea. What you are seeing is the more this goes south, the less and less people want to be a part of any of it.

[00:21:23] And this is increasingly going to happen inside the GOP because it's, if you talk about Congress, we're about to start. It usually will start after say Mother's Day. It will start after the June 1st. We, the public won't really be super engaged with the midterms or an election until usually after Labor Day in September. But that's not true for the members running for the, for Congress because, and also in a general election,

[00:21:52] because you've really got to get your ducks in an order for that campaign. In the, before the summer, before an election, that's when you're currying favor with your donors. You're getting money from your donors. Once the summer comes, now you're huddling with your, your strategists and you're starting to plan. Well, what exactly are the events going to be? What exactly are the timing going to be?

[00:22:19] And usually those events start a couple of weeks into August so that it's a little bit before the, the fall. And then of course the fall, it's all full on, right? It's like an NFL football game. So, so this is like the NFL. They're in preseason starting in the summer. And then the NFL season is going to start right at the end of August. And they're going to be playing essentially weekly schedules. Well, that preseason is real, just like it is for the NFL.

[00:22:47] They've got to sort out who we're going to be there, their lineups, essentially. What are they going to do? They need to make staff changes. Does somebody have a personal issue that is going to now make them not like really able to work on the campaign over the coming months? All that has to be sorted out here, best you can, here in the summer. And that's when, that's why the GOP, that's the Republicans, they're going to start to have real distance here.

[00:23:16] And Donald Trump will domestically. He is going to paint the, we think politics has been bad so far. We haven't seen nothing yet. This is going to be the most dangerous, the most aggressive campaign. Democrats are going to be painted as, you know, completely the demons incarnate. I mean, this is going to be, and the Democrats are going to be perfectly glad to do the same.

[00:23:46] So what you're going to see here is this is going to become an unbelievably ugly game of domestic power politics. And part of that is every man and woman for himself. That's how this game is really played. And I think it's really sad, Scott, because we are in a very fortunate position.

[00:24:08] We're able, you from the military, me from academe, we really are able to look at a bigger picture. I'm not supporting one party or the other. I'm supporting America. I've been doing that for a long time. And I just don't think I could do that in some other realm. If I was in business, my God, I have to keep my mouth shut. If I'm in politics, why I got to support? I mean, oh, my goodness gracious.

[00:24:33] Where else are we actually going to be able to have the luxury to do the work, to do the say what we think? This is just a real fortunate position we're at. Now, that is true. It's sad to see by comparison, but you're very right about that. Yeah, I don't think you're going to see Congress bail out. You know, this is not going to be there. The cavalry is not coming from China. They're not coming from the Europeans. The West Wing is getting smaller and smaller, I suspect.

[00:25:04] You know, Joe Kett's gone. It gets smaller and smaller. And this is what Lyndon Johnson reported in Vietnam. It's the circle just keeps getting smaller and smaller. And right now, you know, people say, well, what about 2028, J.D. Vance and Rubio? Well, we'll see. I mean, oh, my God, you know, they're going to have a lot. They're doing their best. It's not that they're but they're trapped. They have their own trap because what are they going to do? It's like Kamala Harris. What exactly is she going to do?

[00:25:34] Yeah, I was there when the whole thing went south. It was a total disaster. And I kept my mouth shut. Yeah, well, you got to imagine, too, like what else are they going to have to work left to work with after two years? Maybe we can go there. I mean, as as American influence continues to get tattered by this whole conflict, is there a natural settling point where American power and interest still projects just from a purely real politic mechanical standpoint? Do we keep Canada and Mexico? Is it the Five Eyes Nations?

[00:26:01] I think what you're going to see is that through probably through the fall here, this is going to be dominated by Iran on the international front and then by the midterms on the domestic front. I think what you might see with the Trump administration coming out of January is they may go back to small victories.

[00:26:26] That's maybe when you see Cuba start to come back somewhere. You know, when we lost the Vietnam War, there was this very famous you're too young for this. But there was a Saturday Night Live skit when we went into Grenada and it was the weekend update. And the weekend update headline was America finally found a country they could beat.

[00:26:52] So this is what I think is coming, but not right away, not in the next few months, because it's Iran is still just jerking us around too much. I think what's going to happen, though, is we get into January. You're going to see these smaller efforts because I don't think President Trump is going to he won't be. I think he'll still be in office and he'll be the lamest of all the lame ducks. And the Democrats will love him being in office.

[00:27:21] They're not going to want him to go away. They want to run. They want to have subpoenas and they're going to want to have, you know, impeach Hegsa and then they're going to impeach the next level down. I mean, everybody is going to this is this is this is what the Democrats are just going to have a field day if they take control of both of even one or both houses of Congress.

[00:27:42] And so what you'll see is that the administration will want to go even more to Internet foreign affairs because that will be the one place they'll have a little they'll have more autonomy, more freedom. And that will mean probably back to the Western Hemisphere. And then the most obvious places here would be really Cuba. But I wouldn't expect that between now and January. I just find that really hard to believe that that we're going to because we would have to move our aircraft.

[00:28:11] If you just think about this. Yeah, that would be we'd have to publicly accept total defeat to Iran and then say, oh, no, we're not really to be defeated. We're just going. No, no, I think that that this is more likely in January. So unfortunately, I do think that we're in for more war. I don't think the war is good for us, but I do think that is probably in the offing.

[00:28:39] And then on top of that, we are going to be in or conflicts that we are not in control. Once we remove the American pacifier from Europe, from the Gulf and also from Asia, more things are going to happen independently, Scott. And this is why I'm I'm I'm teaching a class right now. The seminar called Theory and Practice of Preventive War. I started this.

[00:29:06] The idea I had the idea in the summer of 2024 when I realized there was an extremely good chance that Trump was going to win and what was going to come. I couldn't predict the exact details, but I I had a sense it was going to become a more much more war prone world. So that's when I I started this seminar, which there hasn't been one in other major universities I know of on preventable or graduate seminar. And I taught the first one a year ago this last spring. That was my first round.

[00:29:36] And now I'm at the second round and and I'm working on a future book on this subject down the road because this really is going to be a giant loss for America. We're going to be trying to figure out how to come back. I have some longer term ideas here, but it's not turning this around on a dime.

[00:29:57] But I do have I do have some actual substantive ideas, but it's just not I just don't think we can really talk seriously about this until after the midterms, because this is just way to the intensity of what we're going through right now. This is like a like a divorce, a breakup. I mean, the idea you're in the middle of the divorce and now you're going to start talking about new relations. No, this is too intense here and it's too stunning for the body politic.

[00:30:26] And the military is just going to be, you know, really like, oh, my goodness gracious. Seriously, we're going to be our we're actually going to move bases. And, you know, maybe half of our troops are coming out of Korea, too, at some point. I mean, these are some of the big changes coming in the next six to six months or a year. This is not like five years from now.

[00:30:46] Yeah. Well, you shared with us before that, you know, if U.S. troops go on the ground in a country, it increases 20 fold the odds of that country supporting domestic terrorism here in the United States. Absolutely. If the U.S. is looking to continue escalating, you know, at what point does it become inevitable that we put boots on the ground? What should people be looking for?

[00:31:07] You know, the big thing is right right now, this this week, what what Trump is doing with saying he's going to militarily open the street. That's what he's doing. He's saying he's just going to run the blockade. This is essentially the escort option. But this escort option immediately has threats coming on the ground from the coast of Iran just just immediately.

[00:31:33] So the idea that this is simply going to be an escort mission where we're going to do defensive cover and we're not going to attack on the ground. I find this I mean, the military, of course, loves offensive air control anyway. That's what they call it. So this is the idea that this is not going to happen. I find it just for multiple reasons. So I think we need to understand that Iran has made it quite clear. They're not giving up the straight.

[00:32:01] The only way we're getting it, getting it back to where it was before or even half of that is to go and militarily take it. This is the beginning of that option. Karg Island is suddenly going to be, in my mind, back on the table. It was kind of off the table for a few weeks. But if you go down this road, why exactly aren't you taking Karg Island here?

[00:32:25] I mean, you're going to start to see Mission Creep would expand because the threat envelope is going to expand. You can't have it be the case. You're going to do the escort mission and the bad guys are only going to attack you in the nice, gentlemanly way that you could easily do this with no offensive air control. That's just not how the world has ever worked out. And I think Iran, I mean, we've seen that they've gone down the diplomatic front.

[00:32:54] I'm not so sure that the IRCG is so thrilled with the diplomatic front. It's a little hard to tell what comes out of their media here. But what I see coming out of the media is there's folks that seem to be itching to get back into fighting with Americans. Because after all, they clobbered all those bases. You see, I don't think the history of this from Iran is it's a stalemate.

[00:33:20] I think the history is America had all these bases and then America was so embarrassed they had to cover up the damage. And the more that you see, the more the buildings look really badly damaged. I just think that what this is, is they're they're probably looking forward to the next round of fighting. So I don't think they're going to hold back and be that restrained. If anything, I think the lesson for them is the less restraint, the more power they gain. Now, of course, it's it.

[00:33:49] War is an uncertain thing. It's you never have 100 percent certainty in anything. But I do think that this is I think that if we go down this road, the ground forces, this idea we're drawing the line. We're only going to do a sharp rap. That's all we're going to do. We're just that's all we're going to do. Just one more time. OK, and then we're not going to do it. It's like, I guess, an alcoholic. I'm just taking the last drink.

[00:34:18] OK, but that does that ever work out? Every alcoholic is always going to quit tomorrow. Exactly. So I just don't buy that. This is I think you're going. I think the pressures are. Trump wants to avoid that L and he's more and more desperate to avoid the L. And he's got some options which are not looking good. But and the only people who would support this, I think, are going to be in the West way.

[00:34:45] I don't think there's any other support for this. But nonetheless, they're by the Constitution. You know, it's Abraham Lincoln famously went around and was asking his cabinet what their advice was. And it was no, no, no, no, no, unanimous till it came to Lincoln. And then he said, I gentlemen, the eyes have it. You're supposed to look that up. It's literally the case. Yeah, because he is the boss.

[00:35:14] It's it's not a democracy in the West way or in the cabinet. He runs the show. And right now, his interests are the ones that are being gored the most. And and you're seeing he's not doing we've got of options for lowering the price of gas. I don't know where the price. What's the price of gas outside where you are? Oh, I filled up my Dodge Durango this weekend. It was four thirty nine and gallon. It cost me one hundred eighty dollars or one hundred and eight bucks.

[00:35:43] And I almost cried like this is ridiculous. OK, I'm four ninety nine here in the south side of Chicago. And we'll see what it is. That was yesterday. I filled it up yesterday because I thought, man, we got to get this while it's good. If I can figure out a way to get my kids to daycare and safely in a bike, I'm telling you what, I will be in such great cardio shape by the end of this thing. I don't think my wife signing off me throwing them in the back of one of those little trailer things and take it out. We're going to be walking a lot.

[00:36:14] This is a good time to invest in the shoe industry. Well, and this is unfortunately. See, I guess by doing these, the sub stack, it really pushes you to have these frameworks, which I have. But then the push of more to the edge, because that's what you get from the comments when you when you put things out. Give me more. Give me more.

[00:36:33] And the and you really see this with I wrote this paper on sub stack about three or three or four weeks ago where I said, here's what the first 45 days are going to mean economically. Here's day 45 to 60. I mean, I was actually, you know, sort of should I be that specific? And then there's day 60 and on and then there's day 90.

[00:36:54] But but it really has turned out to be the case, Scott, that you can really predictably see that when you have the initial beginning of shortages, you have stockpiles of everything. And then those stockpiles, though, they run out and they run out in about 45 days. And that's what you're seeing here. And then if we move to longer term, you know, actual combat again.

[00:37:21] And well, this is what will put at risk. The Red Sea and the dribbles that are coming out of the Red Sea are still meaningful. Well, there's good chance that'll get shut down if this escalation in the Persian Gulf goes. And this might extend over to the Red Sea. And now you'll be talking about six dollar gallon here, at least in Chicago, which I think it's already in California. But in Chicago here, we're at four ninety nine.

[00:37:52] And I could see this again. It depends on if we do escalate. I think easily six dollar a gallon is coming in Chicago by the end of May, for sure. At least in my what I'm seeing. Well, I'm also going to make a prediction now following in your stead. The minds may be placed off blind optimism and hope, not analysis. And that I'm going to predict that there will come a day that you and I will end one of these talks on a happy note. Yeah.

[00:38:18] It's clearly not going to happen today, but one of these days. It's going to happen. It's I think so, too. I think what I think it's going to happen here. And by the way, we'll see how far this goes. But there is a I don't want to do this now. But in the coming months here, there really is a an alternative way for us to think about the security of our country that that we're not always not lost yet.

[00:38:47] We're not neither party is moving down this road, which is why I want to say more about it when we get more like sort of a political space to actually hear what I'm about to say. But I am talking to some folks behind the scenes, and I really do think there is a better tomorrow there. And but I don't think it's going to be in the short term because we're just too much in the soup right now.

[00:39:16] It's just you just can't. I think we just we're going to have to go through some really dramatic pain here, even if President Trump would listen to every single thing I said at this point. I'm just not optimistic at all the way I was in the first couple of weeks. The first couple of weeks, all I was doing was trying to give advice to the Trump administration. If you listen to not just on yours, but everywhere else, none of that was was taken.

[00:39:44] And now I just don't know that there is much that that he's going to be able to do until we we get to that point in January where and it really won't be. I don't think the West wing. I think it's going to be more the next candidates for a future president, because I think that's really what the world is. Is we're going to move to a new set of debates, a new set of foundations.

[00:40:14] And and I but I don't think it's happening till we get through the seating of the next Congress. Well, here's to a long and painful summer then. Thank you so much for joining us this morning. Looking forward to checking in next week. OK, we'll check in next week. It's really great. Good talking to you. Have a good day. Bye bye.