Fifty-nine days after it was signed, the Mecca Pact has been activated. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey have agreed to send forces to defend the kingdom against the Houthis. The alliance itself isn’t the real danger. The danger is when it was formed.
Scott breaks down how the Houthis pushed Riyadh to call in its new allies: strikes on four Saudi cities, attacks on the East-West pipeline that lets Saudi oil bypass the Strait of Hormuz, threats to Saudi airspace, and a drone the Saudis say was headed for Mecca. He separates what the pact is from what it isn’t, and reads the fine print on domestic approval, “all those responsible,” and Pakistan’s insistence that the pact is purely defensive.
Scott also covers what Turkey can actually bring (combat-proven drones, a growing defense industry, and a conscript army that isn’t built for “away games”), why Turkey’s constitution puts treaty approval and troop deployments in separate articles, and why Yemen is nothing like northern Syria. Then Pakistan: nearly six decades of military ties to Saudi Arabia, a three-front squeeze at home, and a delicate role as mediator between Washington and Tehran.
Finally, the big picture: with the U.S. tied down in its war with Iran, middle powers are building their own security order. Could alliances formed after a war starts create a 1914-style escalation chain? And why this is about state power politics, not a Sunni religious bloc.
What does the Mecca Pact mean for Israel? The members-only companion episode is available now in The Briefing Room, our members-only community on YouTube: [MEMBERSHIP LINK]
Follow Scott on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
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