The Democrats won the House and Senate in a blowout. Does that mean the Iran war winds down in January? Professor Robert Pape argues the opposite: the next 60 days may be the most dangerous stretch of the conflict yet.
Pape explains why the real shock of the midterms wasn’t the size of the blue wave, but the share of MAGA voters who turned out to vote Democratic out of anger at President Trump. He traces the cracks now in the open, from JD Vance and Ron DeSantis to Thomas Massey’s planned impeachment articles against Secretary Hegseth, and why Pape now puts Trump in Nixon territory. He argues that a fracturing presidency gives Trump a growing incentive to escalate with Iran because the domestic cost has bottomed out, and he puts the odds of escalation before January at 50-50.
We also cover the three fronts running on the same clock: Iran’s zero-hour targeting posture and Netanyahu’s push to strike first, Putin’s campaign against Ukraine’s power grid, and the transfer of power in Washington. Plus, whether a Democratic Congress has any real incentive to end the war.
Robert Pape is a professor of political science at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST).
00:00 Is it all over now?
00:46 Three escalation fronts, one 60-day window
03:18 MAGA voters crossing over
07:07 Vance, DeSantis, Massey: the cracks go public
10:26 From LBJ and Carter to Nixon territory
17:08 Putin’s plan to black out Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa
20:18 Will Trump take an L on Iran?
26:08 Will a Democratic Congress actually end the war?
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