The Iran War Could Push Africa Toward Collapse | Fidel Amakye Owusu

[00:00:00] How is Africa getting pulled into the war over the strike of Hormuz, dealing with the pending collapse of several states, rising fuel costs, social unrest, possibility of famine, and a host of other issues? Welcome to the At the Water's Edge podcast, where we look for insights beyond the headlines and take a practitioner view on national security and geopolitics. It's the 20th, October, 2026. Let's get started. We are talking with Fidel Amakye Owusu from Ghana, an amazing geopolitical analyst.

[00:00:25] Please be sure to like, subscribe, share an episode with a friend, all that good stuff. And with that, let's get to our friend Fidel. Well, Fidel, good afternoon. How are you doing today, sir? I'm doing fantastic, sir. Thank you. And yourself? Doing well. It's a pleasure to talk with you again. The pleasure is made, sir. Yeah. Now, last time we had a great conversation about the Sahel, and the world's gotten a bit more interesting since then. Let's dive right in.

[00:00:50] So, everyone seems to be focused on this war that's going on between the U.S. and Israel and Iran. It's pulling in all the Gulf states. We're seeing France and Italy get involved. We just heard that Egypt, an African country, is considering sending troops to Saudi Arabia to protect the holy sites. So, I want to ask you, you know, from where you sit in Ghana, how is this war with Iran impacting things in your part of the world?

[00:01:17] Thank you very much for this question, because it's very relevant to my life as a person and the lives of millions of others across the continent and even billions. The reason being that, for a long time, African economies were subsidizing fuel for their populations.

[00:01:40] Because they were especially since the 1970s, when events in the Middle East led to astronomical high prices of fuel. Many governments in Africa started cushioning significant fuel prices for their populations. Because, I mean, these are very poor populations that could not afford.

[00:02:02] But as the middle class is growing and economies are transforming, these governments have incrementally removed these subsidies in order to let consumers fill the real prices of global markets. So, currently, many countries are not providing such subsidies.

[00:02:26] And so, whatever happens outside the continent, which affects fuel prices, directly affects consumers all over. And currently, fuel prices going up has meant that average inflation has shot up. Because the track that carries goods from the port in Mombasa to Nairobi would have to charge more and would have to buy more fuel.

[00:02:54] And that is transferred to the consumer. And so, the final consumer or the basic or ordinary consumer is paying more for goods that he or she was paying less for months ago before the Iran conflict started. And so, yes, Africans are feeling it so much. And it has led to several protests. And the last time I checked, it was more than 50 protests that are directly linked to the oil fuel prices.

[00:03:23] And it has the propensity to actually destabilize governments across the region. Wow. So, we're seeing that same thing here in America, but we've never really subsidized oil. So, for us, it's just the market impact. So, you guys are seeing the market impact. At the same time, these governments have been removing subsidies. So, it's twice as bad for the consumers from their perspective. Exactly. Exactly.

[00:03:46] And the other thing is that for weak democracies or electoral democracies that are trying to consolidate the gains they've made over the years, this is very precarious. Because then, they are going to fill it at the polls. People are going to vote against governments or under whose leadership these fuel prices are shooting up. And many people do not want to listen to the story of Iran. They think that, yes, you are entitled.

[00:04:15] You have to do something about it. They don't want to listen. So, governments are really frustrated by this. Wow. So, I know last time we talked about how, I think, it's Mali, Niger, and Burkini Faso are all considered controlled by military juntas, the huge security risk in the Sahel, all that problems. But how is this war with Iran, how is this oil crunch further exacerbating security concerns on the continent? You mentioned that certain governments might be under threat. Yeah.

[00:04:41] So, yes, for instance, we have a major election coming up in Nigeria. Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa. But, as I mentioned, subsidies are removed, so the people are filling the heat. And the incumbent is going to fill that heat because the youth, if you're on social media and other traditional media platforms, people ask about the cost of living as a result of these fuel prices.

[00:05:07] And so, the government is not a certain intent that we're keeping its fingers crossed if it can get a second term because the incumbent is still running. Other elections are happening across the continent. And even in local elections in South Africa, it's going to be largely determined by these prices of goods and services that are going up significantly. And so, for countries that are having just in-liberal democracy where some kind of quesite or territorial systems are in place,

[00:05:37] anything could happen. And the people are going to back any person who steps in, perhaps use force to remove them, and declare that, well, the hardship is too much, and that should be enough justification for someone staging a coup. And so, this is not going down well in Africa. And it has a lot of potential to cause destabilization and also destruct gains, democratic gains that some countries have made over the time.

[00:06:07] So, some recently formed democracies might actually revert back into some sort of authoritarian dictatorship, whether it's a military coup or some other thing like that. Yes, yes. Well, that's all. You know, we have what we've called the JNZ protests. We're using social media to organize themselves. I mean, they don't have any leadership to leave such protests. They just organize themselves on social media and get to the streets. And in Kenya, that caused a lot of destruction.

[00:06:36] Fortunately for Kenya, it's more established when it comes to stability. But some countries did not be able to stand that kind of a JNZ demonstration. It happened in Madagascar, and where such protests led to the overthrow of the civilian government. And we currently have another military junta in Madagascar, the largest island city in Africa.

[00:07:02] So, this seems like it harkens back to what we saw with Arab Spring, because what you just described in Madagascar is almost exactly what we saw in Egypt. Math Youth Process organized online led to Sisi taking over. Now we have a military dictatorship in Egypt. Same military dictatorship, which is now saying they might send troops to Saudi Arabia. It's funny how long this comes full circle. How do you see other parallels between youth protests in Africa right now and what we saw in 2011 with Arab Spring?

[00:07:32] Yeah, so the Arab Spring went a full circle. So, in that it started, and then it looked like democracy was going to take over. And then we realized that it was going to lead more dictatorship and strong man leadership. And so, that is what we've seen. But in South Saharan Africa, it looks like their military took over, and they are not handing over in any way. They don't want to, they are not even pretentious about it. They are not saying, well, we want to be civilians and be dictators, I mean, in suits.

[00:08:02] They are still in their military attire, and they are ruling with iron fist, not letting go. They've actually left organizations that their countries have been part of since 1975. So, I mean, they are trying to, I mean, hold on to power. We've seen that in Madagascar. And interestingly, we were about to see some good news in Guinea-Bissau, what has been called the narco states in Africa, where the military took over, and we thought that there was going to be a fast transition.

[00:08:32] A couple of weeks ago, or I think last week, they came out that, well, let's hold on. The transition is not happening. The December election is not happening. And we are not surprised, because, I mean, whenever they took power, and they told us that they were going to transfer power, there was this thing that was always going to come up, that, well, we have to wait for a while. And when they wait for a while, it eventually leads to the leader of the WUNTA

[00:09:01] putting his uniform down and wearing some suit to take over. But as I said, in Africa, in sub-Saharan Africa, they are not even being pretentious about that. They are throwing their uniforms and they are ruling. Well, let's all be grateful for the transparency, I guess. This is interesting, because you talked about, yeah, military junta, people put on suits. It's, you know, we saw Erdogan, he was prime minister of Turkey. Then he became the president. And then the constitution changed to give all the power to the president.

[00:09:28] Like, when it comes to world leaders in the post-World War II era, we'll say, every time that we had this strongman come over and take over a country, it seemed like there was this effort to legitimize their regime with democratic trappings for the international community. Is, are these nation states in sub-Saharan Africa taking a different approach to participating in the international community? Because it seems like it would make them default pariah states. Yeah.

[00:09:56] So, what I've noticed is that after the end of the Cold War, we saw the democratic weave, because we came to have what was nearly a unipolar world, led by the United States and eight Western allies. With that, democracy became a currency, because if you didn't have it, the IMF was not going to talk to you, the World Bank was not going to deal with you as they would deal with any other person.

[00:10:24] And so, many detectives transitioned into democracies, or at least some sort of democracies. So, we saw that in Kodiwa, we saw that in Ghana, Mali, Benin, and several other countries. In fact, detectors that were not willing to hear any of that were forced to actually draft some constitution and to allow some elections. So, that was positive. But, currently, that has been reversed,

[00:10:52] because we are currently in a multipolar dispensation. If you stage a coup, Moscow was ready to battle. And so, there was no need to maybe go to the World Bank or to look labor out to the World Bank. You needed, all you needed is some support from Moscow or from China, and you are okay. And as long as such support will be coming, the military leaders are no more anxious to have that kind of legitimacy

[00:11:21] that they wanted to have during the Cold War, where after staging the coup, they wanted to transition into some democracy and look good so that they could maybe visit Washington or visit that side. These days, if Washington is not going to allow them a visit, they will get it in Moscow. And so, they will still put on their uniform and hold on so tightly to the power that they've gained for themselves. And they bring in cronies

[00:11:48] and what we call the promissory coups. They come in promising that, well, we are going to have to back in the next moment, and then they stay on, and nobody can really get them off. So, that is the kind of reverser that we've seen in recent decades as a result of multipolarity. It almost seems like we're seeing what the new world order, this multipolar world order will eventually look like for everyone, but we're seeing it play out first in Africa. Yes, because, you know,

[00:12:19] Africa has always been a tough for global changes. When we have the bicolor world between the Soviet Union and the United States and the West, we saw that proxy wars were fought in Angola, Mozambique, the DRC, Mobutu Sese Seko, got the support of Washington to stay on because Washington was trying to contain communism in Africa. So, I mean, that was what,

[00:12:48] then we came to unipolarity and the United States said, well, I'm not going to support dictators again. There's no need for that. I'm no more containing communism. And so, we came to have what you call the unipolarity and it led to some benefits because leaders were now being held more accountable. We saw leaders not spending so much on arms but on education and at the end that has seen a lot of benefit for Africa

[00:13:18] because now the youth in Africa are not as uneducated as they were during the Cold War. These new generations are well educated because of the budgetary changes that came with the democratic transition after the Cold War where more investments were made in education, in health and other sectors that are relevant rather than just building arm forces and militia and putting so much money there. But it looks like we are going back to that era where leaders are now investing in arms so they can stay on.

[00:13:47] The groups are becoming more militant and so on and so forth. So that is where we stand in this multipolarity because in this multipolar world great powers and middle powers some middle powers and some great powers are willing to back arm militancy and other groups no matter what their goals are. As long as they get the resources that they go through in areas geographical areas to go through

[00:14:16] within their territories. Yeah. Why is it that for a nation state in Africa if you're a political regime there democratically elected junta style whatever the case may be it seems like you get more utility out of getting outside help from the US China Russia than it does from relying on a coalition of your own neighbors. I mean Africa is a massive lots of history of empire there

[00:14:45] tons of natural resources it seems like it should be able to push back on these imposing great and middle powers. Yeah. That is a fantastic thing and I appreciate that it came from you because you're not African because often when How could you tell? No sorry. I mean you are American I know that for sure. Yeah. Yeah. So the thing is we

[00:15:15] have this tendency to seek legitimacy beyond our borders and whereas we live in international or community of nations we are not so much relying on ourselves and that is a problem. For instance recently Ghana announced that it was going to join BRICS Brazil Russia India China

[00:15:44] and South Africa a group that is now attracting a lot of members but the question you asked yourself why not strengthen the African Union and have that kind of bargaining power when we are negotiating with other powers why don't we present ourselves at 1.4 billion population rather than presenting ourselves at individual 54 sovereign countries that are I mean not that strong why not talk about a more consolidated African market

[00:16:14] that negotiate with the United States with China with Russia and other powers so that is it we always want to join other groups as long as other external or other powerful countries powerful countries are members of such groups so that we can go individually to these to Beijing to other capitals to ask for certain support but then again things are also changing if you look at the resource aspect of things the resource nationalism that is gaining a lot of movement

[00:16:43] where African countries are currently determining how their resources are being managed value addition local content clauses tax codes changing and things like that so I believe that well yes these groups joining so many of these groups is not the solution for our progress however with the resource nationalism that is currently emerging perhaps we may capitalize on that to

[00:17:13] build some kind of economic capacity that supports the majority poor yeah you know it seems like a counterpoint to that would be when we've seen resource nationalism show up in certain countries you know in the Mali Burkina Faso Niger we have big news in America at least in military circles you know Tim Kennedy famous Green Beret was shot in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

[00:17:43] working a contract for Eric Prince doing some sort of security for local miners and stuff I say that because I came from the same army regiment as Tim Kennedy back in the day it wasn't there the same times but yeah very aware of him you know that was big news so it seems like resource nationalism almost brings in more outside interventionism of course of course and that that was brilliant you know when I heard about

[00:18:12] Derek Prince in DRC it was really interesting and the interesting thing is that he appears to be collaborating with a fair known as Kubo Kubo backed by Bill Gates Bill Gates and Warren Buffett and that is huge because the DRC has all those metals that are needed in Silicon Valley to

[00:18:42] produce all the high-end and cutting-edge technologies that we are currently experiencing so if Elon Musk is showing us a vehicle from the DRC now what it means is that many countries are legitimately securing some of these critical minerals for their industries that is legitimate however it depends on how it does it stand because a few

[00:19:12] days ago a former president that has stayed in the DRC for about two decades Joseph Kabila has openly announced that he is now the head or the leader of the rebel group in Eastern Congo something he was denying for a long time he's openly come out now I'm producing a piece of this and one of the driving factors or the reasons that Joseph Kabila would openly come out is because

[00:19:41] of the resources because definitely with this outing he's likely to get the support of some state and non-state actors beyond the borders of Africa to actually establish himself in the east and make sure that these resources are out there so it's going to be very complex and your statement that yes the resource nationalism is actually bringing so much external interference and external players it's the truth so it depends on how you are channeling

[00:20:11] your nationalism it could either break your country or make your country and that is very significant you bring up state and non-state actors I remember when I was doing my undergraduate college work and we're talking about intro to international relations theory and we're learning about democratic peace and sharing borders and all the things they talked about how there was a black hole in the data sets for all these theories and that there just wasn't a lot of historical records for Africa so it was still an open

[00:20:41] question if these theories still apply to the African continent or are there other variables that we're just not aware of the way you described what you just described it seemed like there was an outsized influence of non-state actors to have agency in states and an assumption of international relations theory is that states are the primary actors in the international system do you think that for certain parts of the African continent someone other than states could be

[00:21:11] considered the primary actors or at least on par with the state of course this is very important and it has been the case some time back when I was studying for my first degree we had a guest lecturer who mentioned that all you need in the DRC is to get a private jet and a satellite phone at a time around and

[00:21:40] control some things and call some people and then you have some place carved for yourself and the state is not there there there is no state presence so you mind whatever you can and you go and interestingly whatever we've heard about the DRC in terms of resources is just 10% anything we know because the country's exploration has not been well mapped out and now the government has started doing it and it announced that few weeks ago that it's now going to map up the whole country it means that there

[00:22:10] are so much resources that we know of and so yes when that happens with that vast country the largest in South South Africa in terms of space and that means that you have a lot of actors who can operate independently and without yes or in the UN the DRC is supposed to have a single seat in the UN but in terms of de facto control there are multiple actors

[00:22:40] that are on the ground and this is to say that the uranium that fueled the first atomic bombs of the United States came from southern DRC at a time and it was one of the reasons the US was keen on not letting the Soviets have a hood in the DRC and so it is to say that historically there has been external interest in the DRC but much of it will

[00:23:10] depend on how governments because you know for the external actor he needs the resources but he cannot wait for you to establish presence all over your territory before he manufactures what he wants to manufacture back home and when any actor is able to establish that independence and that control he is likely to get the recognition of the external actor directly or indirectly and that's what brings neighboring states like Rwanda and Uganda

[00:23:40] into the picture where they see that well Kinshasa the capital is far away in the west but we are more closer to the east where the resources are deposited so from Kigali the capital of Rwanda to where the resources are concentrated is shorter than from the capital in Kinshasa all the way to the east so you look at the map and it will make sense why Uganda and Rwanda seem to have so much control in eastern

[00:24:09] DRC even than the government in Kinshasa because proximity is a factor in this calculation the same way you move to Mozambique and you realize that an IS group is having a foothold in the north and the last time I was telling someone that well Mozambique yes the Rwandan forces are there we have other forces there but it looks like at a point some non-state actors like total energies

[00:24:39] would have to speak to extremists because without that it would be difficult to operate in Somalia we found a situation where are in coordination with Al-Shabaab a group that owned a allegiance to Al-Qaeda and people fear that these sophisticated weapons that are being used against the Saudis will reach the Al-Shabaab group

[00:25:09] eventually these are the things we are concerned about in Ethiopia we saw what they did in fact I can mention on and on and on and we see what the RSF is doing in Sudan so it's all over the place in Mali we have the Azawad movement that is collaborating with Al-Qaeda affiliates the JNIM in Mali and this is a group that is slowly turning itself into some factor that is even ready to

[00:25:38] adhere to international conventions because in recent time it's released prisoners to the Malian government that is a fighter so it's a

[00:26:10] Al-Shabaab which is aligned to Al-Qaeda which is Sunni Islam which is actually Saudi Arabia but then Egypt is sending people to Saudi Arabia in the West we like to paint these broad brushes about religious fundamentalism and we forget that religion is a thing but there's all these other considerations and all these groups if they're still around because they're very practical with

[00:26:40] I would wish that you lecture in some universities because you know some of these nuances and dynamics are not known to so many people do not know about this and often things are put together and labeled and people avoiding the nuances means that you cannot fight effectively people refuse to think that extremists can be pragmatic yes successful

[00:27:10] ones are very pragmatic exactly because you know you are talking about Shiite group collaborating with a fundamentalist Sunni group and they are working together because they have common enemies they see that well you are on the other side of the Gulf of Eden I'm on the opposite side of it if I am you we can together when I am more back you may be in a good position to support

[00:27:40] me by hitting at state actors so they are thinking like that and when the Saudi offensive started early on they were able to actually capture some fighters that were shumanis and they were people who were actually members of Ashraf they captured them with their ideas and everything so then you ask yourself that if they could do that then it means that the situation is more complicated that people say it's not about just

[00:28:10] firing barrage of missiles and then it's ants no because these guys want to institutionalize what they're doing they know the relevance of the chokehold that they are maintaining in the Gulf of Eden and the Red Sea the the the the the the the the the the is just in Djokovic they know that it's within their reach so recently when I heard that um US administration

[00:28:40] representatives had met the Houthi in Moskart or in Oman I saw that yeah this is this is something big because these guys know what they can reach these guys know that the power accumulated for themselves in a short while that many state actors will envy you know so it comes back to Egypt Egypt has been very meticulous about this because the missiles of these Houthis can actually reach Egyptian territory and Sisi

[00:29:09] has been very yes because if they can reach Israel they can equally reach in fact Egypt is shorter than Israel if you look at them up and so their missiles are able to reach them and they are even though Sisi had been very meticulous it also has to do with the petrol dollar and how Saudis have supported Egypt over the time and when the request comes directly it will be very difficult for Egypt to refuse but then Sisi's

[00:29:39] approach is very meticulous in fact when Sisi was hitting extremists in support in Libya I didn't hear so much about parliament supporting Sisi's support in Libya but currently Sisi has asked the Egyptian parliament to look into what Saudi

[00:30:09] Arabia is requesting because Sisi knows that the population the Egyptian population is not so much enthused about intervening in Saudi Arabia he knows it and so by using the holy separation of holy sites and things like that he is playing the religious card at the same time using the democracy card and he actually came out to say that well beyond 2030 I will not be president of Egypt that is rare for an Egyptian leader to say and this is to say that to

[00:30:39] tell the Saudis that well I'm practicing some sort of democracy so it's interesting to hear Sisi say he's not going to be president after 2030 because I'm curious is he going to pull well one is he actually not going to be president anymore that's the first thing you know people talk

[00:31:10] I prime minister and change the constitution do the reverse you know hey why not there's a model for it or is he actually going to get out of power because it's very difficult for Egyptian leaders to successfully leave office like they have a huge problem with that if I was him I'd be terrified like I if I am leaving I'm already picking the country I'm exiling myself to I'm pulling a Gorbachev

[00:31:39] I leaving yeah yeah yeah so so um I see some sort of paternalistic arrangements that could be made now while he was talking about leaving power he said the military academy should train future leaders that is big it means that well I

[00:32:09] might leave but this space is not for the civilians like Morsi who came in with the Muslim brotherhood it's the military that will continue ruling that is what it means so I see some sort of paternalistic leadership where he has some control behind the scenes and still allowing some because he also understands the dynamics of history and he wants to make history as the father of a word in Egypt because

[00:32:40] when one elected leader transferred to another no it has never happened since the Pharaoh so 5,000 years ago so it

[00:33:38] to later come out to say well the Egyptian people do not want to leave and then what do you have to say so I mean that is it bad for him to come out that bold and especially mentioned 2030 which is around the corner and it looks like he's getting some feel that well I can make history of being a leader that was different from all the leaders that have come before

[00:34:08] me back to the time of the Pharaoh yeah yes I mean if he can pull it off that be a legacy it'll be interesting to see if there's an obvious successor that shows up in the next couple years like this is the guy or if he's gonna let like a Trump thing happen where he's got JD Vance and Marco Rabio going all right which one of you two am I

[00:34:53] rendered in a rica home if you look at Medvedev and what he does recently how he always threatened nuclear war you understand why he was picked to be president back in the days Medvedev I'm talking about Medvedev Russia and you realize that this is a

[00:35:23] some powerful people around the week yeah it's a really interesting point and I was recently doing some stuff on Saudi Arabia MBS and his rise to power and basically the short version of it is his dad becomes king and then immediately picks MBS and Saudi Arabia become the new crown prince pushes everyone else aside it's interesting because MBS now becomes the most powerful guy in the country but you never hear about his father having power and I wonder if that was the father's plan like just let

[00:35:53] the young kid run it and he hangs out in office or how does that work because with the current troubles in Saudi Arabia right now it wouldn't be surprising if there was a move by other members of the royal family to get rid of MBS if they thought there was an opportunity yeah so it's something I've actually mentioned recently and I believe that the overhaul of a whole generation of leaders

[00:36:22] has really caused so much damage to Saudi Arabia you know all since the passing of the founder of Saudi Arabia his kids or his children have been the what you call the successes I mean it's moved on from brothers to half brother to half brother and then it moved sometimes so group took over and then but there was

[00:37:00] really radical and yes his father is talking but we all know that the man is very old and when he has appeared in public we see that there's some maybe it's not diplomatic to say senility but there are some weakness in him and having lived through the Biden years let's be very undiplomatic about discussing leaders health like let's if they look senile let's call them senile we're past that's

[00:37:29] just me well so that is it the man is weak and you can see it so the crown prince is actually intact and in some ways I can see his problem with MBZ of UAE because they used to be pierced both of them hair apparent and then the

[00:37:58] UAE gentleman going to his predecessor and he's now in terms of diplomacy a top higher than MBZ and that created some issues however from what I see his ostracization or alienation of his uncles did not help like there was one tech I mean I don't know

[00:38:28] I forgot his actual name but he was very good with interior I mean security he was very good he got some training from the United States he is very diplomatic he was sattelined he was actually the first crown prince before MBS he was sattelined and I can see a whole institution in human form being sattelined and these young guys pretending to know it all yesterday I saw a video where MBS brother who is the defense minister was

[00:38:58] with the UAE leader and if you could see that I didn't hear anything they were saying because it was deliberate they kept all the ways away but the body language shows that this is a novice this guy will not understand the dynamics of conflict in the arabian peninsula and anything else and currently I see the UAE guys getting an upper ground or an upper hand in the region because I

[00:39:36] even those who have been marginalized may have some legitimacy to intervene I mean that is what I see I am shocked to hear absolutely flabbergasted to hear that based off the results of the Saudi Arabian campaign in Yemen it turns out their defense minister might be a bit of a novice this is earth shattering news to me yeah I mean it's it's it's like that the brother of the crown prince so it's more about loyalty than competence and

[00:40:06] that is a problem that is a problem when you know yes monarchies have inherent deficiencies because of the tendency to think that well the blood will determine efficiency or capacity to rule however when many generations and other groups have do not overnight sideline them and

[00:40:36] pretend you know everything because they may play the ball with you but may not be that interesting and I would not be surprised because when you do that to a system that has been ruled I mean Saudi Arabia despite the absolute monarchy has leaders and all that come together to

[00:41:05] agree on something but when the line is pruned down to one nuclear family you will find so many insiders that may go against the stakes in their own way and that should be looked at yeah yeah you know another interesting thing we should look at is everyone's talked about how oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz is impacting global markets and reducing flow and everything else but you know another key resource that comes out of the Strait of Hormuz is fertilizer

[00:41:35] which there's a bunch of states in Africa that they have agricultural sectors but the only reason why they've been able to maintain them is because they

[00:42:06] produced weekly and Link in show notes for folks who are listening Link in show notes I said there will be a link in the show notes for folks listening I'll drop a link to your report Thank you So the Swiss Canal links the Red Sea to the rest of Africa and ever since that canal was constructed in the mid 19th century it has been very

[00:42:36] vital to the economies of that region so even Ethiopia that is currently landlocked depends a lot on the Red Sea because Europe and North America get to shift things faster to the region and fertilizer especially from Eastern Europe is one of these commodities and a region that faces a lot of drought and farming

[00:43:07] especially this year we are expecting the El Nino to really affect the region you wouldn't also want to have farmers not affording fertilizer because then if you be able to get some to to the Red Sea it means that

[00:43:36] the cost of shipping has shut up insurance and all that in fact in the midst of the chaos we have seen piracy shoot up significantly in recent weeks so it means that the place has become no-go area or become very dangerous for shifts however it is more expensive to even use the other way going through West Africa the Gulf of Gede going through

[00:44:06] the Banguela coast that is along Namibia all the way to the Cape of Good Hope through the Mozambican channel up to the Horn of Africa it's more expensive so either way people are going to pay more for the fertilizer because of the situation in the Arabian Peninsula and that is worrying because we do not have to get here countries and these populations are also huge populations

[00:44:39] Ethiopia has the second largest population in Africa apart from Nigeria we have Kenya Tanzania we have Uganda and others with very significant populations even Somalia has very significant population and they need to be fed and with these cost of fertilizer shooting up it means that food security is going to be a lot is going to be something that we have to show a lot of concern for

[00:45:09] and the earlier districts in the Arabian Peninsula stops the better for the Horn of Africa Do you think food insecurity in the Horn of Africa could contribute to state collapse or a reversal in the progress that we've seen with democratic governments forming on the continent Do you think that food insecurity due to lack of fertilizer could contribute to an

[00:45:39] increase in state collapse or the reversal of democracies in the continent Yeah it's even more dangerous than fuel prices Really Yes because when people are hungry the way they express it is different from when there is food and they cannot afford Yes because when they cannot afford they try to make appeals in order to afford it but when the food is unavailable then it means that they will likely

[00:46:08] form groups of bandits to either seize those that have it or come together to form a more cohesive group that attacks governments and state interests so food insecurity is a big deal in the rest of Africa and I think that whereas El Nino is more of a natural disaster or a natural occurrence when it comes to fertilizer and irrigation

[00:46:37] and other things they see it as a more human reason why they are not having what they are having and they can use other means to have it that would not be so palatable yeah what state do you think right now is most vulnerable to collapse mostly Africans don't want to be told that their states are collapsing

[00:47:07] but even even when it is obvious and and in Somalia we have a state that was emerging out of a field state and it's emerged and currently when you go to Mogadishu a lot of things are happening however recent dynamics is actually affecting the survival of the states and what are the dynamics the

[00:47:37] centralization of power Somalia has been a federation since its current constitution was adopted and currently the president is changing the constitution is moving the country towards a more presidential system like Turkey and it is also trying to centralize Somalia power and currently with schemishes and other classes

[00:48:06] in the central city of Bedouwa in recent times it shows that the country is slowly going back to what it was and that made it get the label of a failed state and that is a problem now when you take Sudan the war is actually slowly because the war has become a war of attrition and it slowly collapse in the state

[00:48:37] yesterday the spillover was sold in South Sudan where about 73 people were killed and which reports I'm preparing to send to my members of African intelligence report and another neighboring country has been attacked by the SAF we've also found Central Africa Republic another neighboring country seeing some schermishes

[00:49:07] as spillover from Sudan so you look at all this and in fact the current situations in Ethiopia where Tigrayan forces are fighting central government is also another major situation that is happening in the country I mean yeah in the country yeah wow well we covered a lot of ground today thank you so much for talking with us really appreciate it and so you mentioned your

[00:49:37] newsletter is there anywhere else people can find your work yes so so I'm mainly on LinkedIn and you subscribe to it and so that you join the waitlist and when you join the waitlist you are going to get very I used subsidy earlier in this interview so you're going to get a subsidized price from me

[00:50:07] to them and I'm going to bring this report every other week we do mid week take a resource update and then daily update as news break and other developments that happen on the country thank you awesome well thank you so much love you back on soon appreciate your time yeah I appreciate your time thank you for having me thank you