Iran’s Post-Midterm Strategy Will Weaken America | Robert Pape

Iran isn’t easing up now that the midterms are over. It’s pressing its advantage.

Professor Robert Pape (University of Chicago) is back to explain what Tehran has done since Election Day. Its Supreme Leader has ruled out concessions to the incoming Democratic Congress. It has hardened its seven demands and now wants money before any meeting, not after. Its IRGC leadership has said no enriched uranium will leave the country. And the Assembly of Experts has unanimously urged considering withdrawal from the NPT.

Pape argues this is Iran’s next step toward regional hegemony and toward becoming a fourth center of world power. He then lays out the way out of the escalation trap: regional balancing. Under this “Ukraine model,” the US builds up Gulf militaries to counter Iran instead of choosing between endless escalation and walking away. I push back: would Gulf royal families rather submit to Iran than build militaries that could threaten them? We also get into whether MBS could end up like the Shah.

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Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg

(00:00) Democrats take Congress, but the Iran war goes on
(00:36) Welcome back, Professor Pape
(01:02) News roundup: Hormuz, Netanyahu, Rubio vs. Trump, the land blockade
(02:58) The big picture: Iran’s strategy since the midterms
(08:42) How Iran wrecked a presidency without firing a shot at America
(11:50) No concessions: cash up front, Moscow, and nuclear submarines
(14:10) The NPT question and a regime moving like a supertanker
(17:13) Saudi Arabia, the Houthis, and $2 trillion in Gulf assets
(21:52) What is regional balancing? The Ukraine model
(28:33) Pushback: would Gulf royals rather bow to Iran?
(30:05) Could MBS end up like the Shah?
(32:28) Q&A preview: will China miscalculate on Taiwan?