The Houthis have seized control of the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — and with the US Navy already stretched thin in the Strait of Hormuz, there's no clear path to reopening it. Professor Robert Pape returns to break down how we got here: Iran's methodical, multi-pronged campaign to choke off all three of the world's remaining oil buffers (the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Chinese import capacity, and now the Red Sea), and why he believes this is playing out exactly as he predicted back in June.
In this episode:
- How the Iran-backed pipeline attack and Saudi shutdown fit into a broader strategy dating back to July
- Why "hammer and anvil" military doctrine explains why airstrikes alone won't dislodge the Houthis
- Pape's read on the "Pickaxe Mountain" reports and what they could signal heading into October
- What rising gas prices and a climbing 10-year Treasury yield mean for the US economy in the months ahead
- What Pape heard directly from EU officials in Brussels about Europe's actual priorities right now
Got a question for Professor Pape? Send it to [askrobertpape@gmail.com] and we may cover it in a future episode.
More analysis at our Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
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