People Analytics Is a Commodity. What Comes Next? Guest: Cole Napper

[00:00:01] Welcome back to Joey's HR Lounge. We're doing another podcast episode here from the virtual studio. And this week we have someone who's no stranger to Jumpstart HR, a friend of the pod, as they say in the podcasting space, but more importantly, a really smart and amazing human being just to know. So if you don't know Cole, a Cole Napper, I'm going to give you all his titles, but I'm gonna give you a

[00:00:31] story as well to let you know who Cole is. So Cole is the author of a new book. It's out now, you can check it out. We'll have the link in the show notes. He's the author of the book, People Analytics, Using Data-Driven HR and Gen. AI as a business asset. He is the host of the Directionally Correct podcast and principal owner of the firm of the same name. Founder and instructor at the

[00:01:00] Data-Driven HR Academy. If you aren't noticing a trend yet, these are all things on brand for Cole. People Analytics, data, applying it within the HR space. And the newest hat that Cole is wearing, great, great fit by the way, Chief People Intelligence Officer at HR Bench. Cole is, he's the kind of person that you want as a friend because when you go to a conference, he's gonna say nice things.

[00:01:30] To strangers about you. And I'm just grateful for all those interactions. Great friend, great person. Cole, welcome to the show. Thanks for having me, Joey. And that was such a kind introduction and I appreciate it. And I feel the same way about you, man. You're quite a special individual. Thanks, man. You know, we were having a chat at Transform and you said something. I won't say what you said, but you said, you know, I'll paraphrase and hopefully you remember it.

[00:01:57] You said, Joey, like you're one of the smart ones. That sounds like something I would say, yeah. Yeah, yeah. No, I appreciate that moment. So, so tuning into the show today, Cole and I, we're going to talk about a little bit of his book writing process. You know, why did he write his book? Where are we in the people analytics movement? And just other gems and lessons that he wants to share here in Joey's HR Lounge.

[00:02:25] So, Cole, tell us why did you, why was right now the best time to write your book? Yeah, I think it's kind of at a critical juncture. So the book I published last year in 2022, I gave a pretty provocative presentation at the Tel Reos conference, which is like an invite only people analytics conference for like some of the top leaders in the world.

[00:02:49] And it was under the title, is people analytics a luxury and like in in parentheses that we can't afford.

[00:02:59] Right. And, and so with the, the kind of the, the change in the interest rate policy of the end of the zero interest rate, whether it was sometimes called ZERP interest rates, that companies were starting to kind of question some of the speculative functions that they've put into organizations and people analytics and HR being one of those saying, are we really getting the value of this?

[00:03:22] I have been firmly in the camp that people analytics absolutely undeniably provides value, but we have to prove it. And the thing that I think most people analytics practitioners at the time were missing was not the ability to use data, data science skills, you know, applying AI in the workforce and those types of things. It was that they didn't have the business acumen to be able to prove out their value.

[00:03:50] And so what I wanted to do was simultaneously talk about why people analytics was going to continue being an asset, how to prove out the business value of what you're doing, and then looking kind of future forward towards how to be an AI native function rather than one of the functions that's going to get disrupted by AI.

[00:04:08] Because if you look into kind of any of these research studies that talk about like what is AI coming for first, usually things related to data analysis are pretty high on the list of things that are likely to be disrupted. And so I've put together a model that I call the inquisitor and the change agent, which is how people analytics can pivot from being what it was to what it will be in the age of AI.

[00:04:30] But it was kind of a, I mean, as you know, kind of a crazy process writing and then publishing and then promoting the book. And I don't know if you had kind of a similar journey because, I mean, you were previously a guest on Directionally Correct and we talked about your book that came out last year as well. And I've been very pleased with the reception to yours. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think our journeys are similar. We've chatted throughout and we're with the same publisher.

[00:04:59] One of the things that is interesting in writing my book, even with it publishing in March of 2025, there are so many things now that I'm like, oh man, if I do a second edition, I already know what I'm going to write about. Because the global landscape has changed. The HR function landscape has changed. And then to drill that down, the technology landscape has changed.

[00:05:27] And it's so interesting how fast things have changed within a year. And your book really stopped in mind. But you mentioned something about people analytics being a luxury that maybe we couldn't. My mind goes to the SMBs of the world where maybe that's not top of mind for them.

[00:05:48] But where are you seeing people miss the mark or overlook the value of people analytics, whether they're large or small? What are some common things that you see? Well, let me talk about SMB here for a second. Because it's kind of one of the reasons why I'm at HR Bench is a lot of SMB companies are either going to have a one person or a zero person analytics function to service what they're doing.

[00:06:14] And if you know that that is the ground truth, then you have to make the usage of data, the connection of multiple systems together with that data, and then the analytics that are going to be on top of that, not only for HR leadership, but for the board and also many times for the investors in the company that are wanting to see this information. But there's not a lot of, you know, people power behind the ability to make this happen. You've got to be AI native. You've got to be technology native.

[00:06:44] Like it's table sticks. And so the expectations of the HR function are increasing, but that not the manpower behind it isn't necessarily corresponding with the same level of investment. So it's got to be augmented by technology. And I think HR Bench is, again, very forward in that space. I think that kind of the flip side of it was, and when I talked about people analytics being a luxury, is we had gotten to the point where there was like 300 person people analytics teams at some of the largest companies.

[00:07:14] And that was just absurd. Right? I couldn't think of what you could get 75 people to do. What are these 300 people doing? Right? And the reality is they were doing everything under the sun, some of which was valuable, some of which was not. And what we had was sort of a reckoning of making sure that everybody that's doing this profession is, you know, adding value to the organization. And I think that makes the profession better. I think it makes HR better.

[00:07:42] And I think it makes organizations leaner and more nimble because we're not all fighting over the scraps of interesting work, which is something that was sort of going on in the past. And this notion I've been sort of playing with lately is if AI is as transformative as people say it is, which it might not be, but if it is, all large organizations are going to become medium-sized organizations. All medium-sized organizations are going to become small organizations. And all small organizations are going to become startups. Right?

[00:08:09] And if you know that's, if you're in the case, the best vertical to be servicing is small organizations and medium organizations and startups because that's where you know the need exists. And so the HR needs at every size organization are roughly equivalent. It's just the amount of staffing that you can put behind those needs is vastly different depending on the size of the organization. So the most underserved areas are the areas that need this the most.

[00:08:38] Yeah, you know, SMB has been my world and had been my world for quite some time. And what you're talking about makes me even harken back to why I started my business in the first place is because I had seen Char. Some folks were great. I'm not going to be that guy who like every job I had was terrible until I started my own. I had some really phenomenal HR leaders that that I learned under.

[00:09:06] But some of the CEOs, maybe they didn't see the value in HR and this database decisions around talent. And I was like, I want to I want to start a business where that's that helps SMBs change that perspective. But your point around enterprises, everybody's shrinking.

[00:09:25] I think a lot can be said with respect to layoffs that are making different companies reorganize the talent landscape that we're all part of. I am on record on saying, you know, today's laid off software engineer is tomorrow's startup founder. Yeah.

[00:09:47] And, you know, today's laid off HR business partner is, you know, five years from now, three years from now, that startup founders chief people officer.

[00:09:57] So we're in one of those volatile labor markets where you have to be thinking about the decisions around your people intelligently, because although it's not new to think intelligently about your people, we are in this this crazy, crazy environment with so many levers being pulled, some of which we have control over and some of them we don't.

[00:10:21] But but but but but that's why I think what you do at at at HR bench is important and just the knowledge you bring to the market. When I've been playing with this idea, and it's it's in my job title. Of what is people intelligence? Right. And I consider it to be sort of a successor ideology to people analytics. And so if people analytics is a luxury we can't afford anymore, what we really need is people intelligence.

[00:10:51] So last year I wrote this article. It's one of the most popular articles I've ever written, and it's featured in the third chapter of my book, and it's called the tree of value. And it talks about how the tree has four branches, and there are people analytics, workforce planning, talent intelligence and behavioral science, all of which had different origin stories. And so it's actually makes it difficult for those functions to collaborate internally because they're like, no, we are the one true function that knows the way.

[00:11:19] And it's because they came from a different place. And what I say is all of these branches are connected by the same trunk. And the thing that nourishes all of these branches is actually the roots of the tree, which is the value of human capital labor data. And so in my prior role at Lightcast, we talked a lot about like how labor data can can nourish the whole tree. But what I see is happening with people and intelligence, and I'm sort of in the process of writing a manifesto slash mini book on this myself.

[00:11:48] I don't know when it's going to come out, but it's something I've been noodling on for a while, which is I see the branches of the tree collapsing into one. They're no longer going to be four distinct disciplines. It's going to be the value comes from the data and it comes from the intelligence layer. And then intelligence layer, I'm calling people intelligence. And it's going to draw from all four of those disciplines and the wisdom that we've gained over the last hundred years. But the reality is those are not going to be four distinct functions anymore. They're going to be a singular intelligence layer.

[00:12:18] And that coupled with AI is going to bring about the future transformation about how AI is going to transform your workforce. And I really think that's exciting. I think it's it and it's something that I'm still kind of crafting and putting out into the world. But I truly believe people analytics has become a commodity. And when something's a commodity, it's no longer a value add function. And so if you want to continue to add value, you're going to do it partially through the data, but also through the intelligence that's brought to different organizations.

[00:12:45] And I think it's really important to do that at organizations of all sizes and a price point that makes it competitive. Well, Cole, I'm going to challenge your thinking just a bit. Let's do it. Because I've been thinking of something as well.

[00:13:01] I think that when we think about HR or people operations or the chief people officer and that domain, I don't think we're going to live in a world much longer where the only talent you analyze is human. Yes.

[00:13:24] And so it forces me to think like even more broadly because it's it's the people will be an important layer, but your agents will be an important layer. And your software evolving to be able to tackle more tasks and products, projects autonomously. So like it's like a workforce. It's true Jetsons.

[00:13:52] We finally evolved into the world of the Jetsons where it's not just the human resources function. It's like the human and agent function or the. Yeah. Yeah. So. Yeah. To your point about there being all of those branches coming together in one. I think there's this rogue wayward branch that's coming out and that's the agents. Yeah. And so it's all going to be a part of one tree in every business.

[00:14:21] What do you what do you think? Not to like I don't want to blow up your whole. No. I'm actually right there with you. Yeah, man. I've been calling that. So you've got people intelligence and then you've got work intelligence. Right. Right. And work is encompassed of both humans. And because there's so many different terminologies that people are using for like AI and agents and all these type of things. I'm just calling it technology. Right. Right. And so how is technology going to affect work? And honestly, I've given this a lot of thought.

[00:14:49] I think the biggest hindrance at this moment. And this is this is me coming from a data guy because there's also other practical implications. But I first always think about measurement. There has to be equivalent measurement mechanisms for your humans and your technology. And that does not exist right now. No. So something is going to have to be created that gives you equivalent ways of measuring.

[00:15:14] Like think about like simple levers of how you manage your your your work, which is like, OK, this is a human related problem. Let's pull on our human lever and deploy our talent here. This is a technology related problem. Let's deploy our technology talent. And right now, that kind of command center does not exist. But I'm all for being a part of the transformation that helps get it built. And I think that's going to be an exciting time as well.

[00:15:37] I just I think I want to clarify one important thing, which is I think there are some people that just believe that in the in the future, it's just aren't going to be necessary for work. I think that that is a short sighted, ill advised belief. And I always believe that human beings are going to have a place in work and that it's a place of meaning as well. And you can have a joyful and exciting life by getting to accomplish things like you mentioned, like the unemployed software engineer becomes tomorrow's founder.

[00:16:05] That's an exciting thing for that human being. And so I think it's really important to to know that it like some people say, well, we can't measure humans the same way we measure technology. Therefore, humans don't matter anymore. And I think that is a null and void argument. But I cut you off there. So I want to know you're good. And I think that what I would say to the conversation of not measuring human, not being able to measure humans the same way as we measure technology. I think we're dangerously close.

[00:16:36] I think we're dangerously close. And maybe we don't realize it, but there's a lot of conversation around skills indexing and being able to identify and quantify what does it take to successfully execute a skill. And we're doing that for the purpose of hiring people, of seeing who's ready to step into new roles, for workforce planning in an organization. Would it be unfair for the audience?

[00:17:03] There's no one better to answer this question than Cole. So no pressure, Cole, but I know you'll give a great response. Do you think our quest to quantify and itemize skills makes it that much easier to create agents or technology who can now take what was an amorphous thing and now translate it into zeros and ones to carry out skills?

[00:17:33] That's why I think we're dangerously close. Because we're identifying skills explicitly. I think that makes it easier to make that translation into, well, let's create agents who do certain things and we know they've done them correctly because we know the skills to program into them. Am I far off to sci-fi? I don't think you're far off at all. I'll give you my mental model on this.

[00:17:59] Again, this is a space I've been playing in a lot and talked to a lot of really smart people who like this as their full-time job to tackle for different organizations. I think upstream of all of these issues, we have a words and terms terminology problem, which is I think our words that we've used to describe work are insufficient to describe the problems that we're trying to talk about.

[00:18:20] So we talk about skills, we talk about tasks, we talk about work, you know, and we talk about abilities, knowledge, you know, other characteristics like credentials and education. And I just think that they're insufficient to describe what we're trying to say. And as a part of that, when I think about things like measurement mechanisms, a lot of people talk about, you know, AI does tasks and humans have skills. But then you see things like Claude Coe putting out skills. Exactly.

[00:18:50] And it's like, okay, well, maybe I do have skills, right? Then I think about organizations, this two-by-two chart I've been playing with, which is like the work that needs to get done. And it's humans versus technology on one axis. And then it's, is it value-add versus non-value-add on the other axis? And I think what organizations, they already don't have good measurement mechanisms to know what is value-added work versus non-value-added work. So that's like, so first of all, we need to know who has what skills, what technology, what humans.

[00:19:20] Then we need to know, is it value-added or non-value-added? And then we need to know the relationship to the task and the work that actually needs to be accomplished, which sometimes, and I'll agree with you, recently I've been talking, I wrote an article called The Camera TM in December, which talked about like how organization, it was actually the first fictional story I've written. I've never written anything fiction. Everything I write is non-fiction.

[00:19:42] And it was talking about kind of this apocryphal organization that had purchased this tool called The Camera, which can see through walls, it can read, you know, it can read your biometrics, it can see like if you're paying attention or not paying attention. And it feeds all this data back to your organization's operating model and essentially is like optimizing you by like pinging you like, hey, you know, your bathroom visit took 15 seconds too long.

[00:20:11] Can you get back to your desk? And hey, you seem like you're a little depressed today. Maybe consider being a little happier. And like all of these types of things. And it talked about like how are we going to truly optimize human beings the same way we try to optimize technology. And it seems pretty dystopian. The trouble is, other than the seeing through walls component, which I'm sure physicists could probably figure out a way to get around, all that technology already exists today, to your point.

[00:20:37] And so the only thing that's stopping us from doing that is just your will and knowledge and, you know, the dollars to do so. And so I think about this a lot of like, do you have to create a soft dystopia just to get equivalent measurement between technology and humans just to tackle your workforce planning problems of tomorrow? And that seems like it seems like a big sacrifice to make, frankly. Yeah. Well, yeah, when you were talking about the bathroom break thing.

[00:21:07] Yeah. I've heard stories of that actually being deployed at a large, we won't name them, but just a large warehouse. For the same thing? Facility spot managing by bot. You know, char shows up when you had too many violations of bathroom breaks, mealtime, smoke breaks, all those things. Yeah, we're not, we're not too far off from that, man.

[00:21:33] And yet, I mean, it does bring into the case of ethics, morality, which is a whole nother, that's probably the next book that you'll write is the ethics around people. Bad whole chapter in my current book about it, but I'm actually talking with another person that works at a FANG organization, let's say. I don't want to name them yet because we haven't published it. On a separate article that talks about what is the meaning of the word intelligence, right?

[00:22:01] Because in organizations, the root of that comes from business intelligence, which I've always jokingly said has nothing to do with business nor nothing to do with intelligence. So what is it? Because it's not really a thing is it basically just means dashboards and reports. Yeah, like that doesn't mean business intelligence. But then there's the concept of intelligence that comes from like actually the intelligence community, right?

[00:22:23] And how they collect signals, information, human intelligence, you know, national geospatial things, like all of those that are all combined together to create like a singular report, you know, for the president of the United States or different heads of state around the world. And what would that mean if an organization and its leadership had that quality of intelligence about their workforce? And I think it's a pretty provocative statement.

[00:22:49] But alongside that, it's like, what guardrails would you need to do this ethically, morally and in the best interest of the business, but also its employees to do that? And it's a kind of a fraud issue, but that's something that we're planning to address here pretty soon as well. Well, I don't think you can do that without any sort of governmental guardrails because I'll just leave it at that. But I think the way that it's an area that's rife for regulation, I'll say that.

[00:23:18] Yep, absolutely. Absolutely. So, so, Cole, there are a lot of things you think about in the people analytics space. My last question is really just going to be to end it on that like sci-fi note, maybe. What what keeps you up at night that I don't you don't think enough people are caring about when it comes to people analytics? Well, I don't know if it's clear through a lot of things that I've mentioned. I'm actually really excited about the future.

[00:23:46] I'm excited about the things that we're building at HR Bench. I think they're very employee friendly. I think they're very much going to empower the HR function to be the transformative one that they want it to be. And I also have to play in kind of, quote unquote, fantasy land to understand that. Like my expression that I always said is build the future you want to live in. All right. Now, you have to know from an art of the possible standpoint, all of the potential futures that are being considered if you're going to build the future you want to live in.

[00:24:14] And that means going kind of to dark rooms in your mind sometimes, which I'm willing to go into. But I think I think the future is actually really exciting. And I think it's quasi sci fi. But I think in a positive way, like if you if you went back to the cartoons we watched as a kid, like the Jetsons or something like that. The Jetson seems like a pretty cool existence. You know, like it seems pretty great. A lot of people I've never watched Star Trek. So I don't know. But they always talk about like the replicator on Star Trek. You can create anything at any time.

[00:24:43] So like that seems like something worth pursuing if that were even possible or possible according to the laws of physics. So I don't know. I think it's actually a really exciting time. And I think we as humans aren't used to it. Like I think about like the lives of our grandparents where, you know, when they were children, there was like a horse and buggy. Right. And by the time that they got old, we had like not only gotten cars, but rockets and then landed on the moon.

[00:25:11] Like that all happened in a single person's lifetime. Right. And then our entire lives, as far as I can tell, you know, the only big upgrade was like computers and cell phones. Right. And so what if we were going to be about to be on the trajectory of having just as much transformation as our grandparents had? And I think they had a pretty exciting life. And I think we're about to have that same level of excitement in ours as well. I love it. I love it, man. I love your optimism for the future.

[00:25:40] I'm right there with you. And I think the more we can inspire and educate people to make good decisions around their people strategy and just how they show up every day, then my vision for creating a world where people are more excited about Monday than they are about Friday, I think we can make that a reality for a lot of people. So, Cole, real quick though, man, how can people find you, get connected to your book, your work, the things you're doing? There's so many ways. And definitely the academy as well.

[00:26:11] So, and we haven't talked about it today, so I'll make sure to talk about that. The Data-Driven HR Academy, if you're an HR leader out there that's trying to make this transformation yourself, the Data-Driven HR Academy is made explicitly for you. It's modeled after my book, People Analytics. You can find it anywhere that books are sold. If you want to reach out to me directly, colnapper.com, it's a great place to find me. And if you're curious about any of the things I said about HR Bench, you know, check out HRBench.com and, you know, book a demo. All right, Cole.

[00:26:41] Always good to see you virtually and in person. I'm sure we'll see each other on the road at some point soon, but thanks for joining me here. Enjoy HR Lounge and we'll drop a link to everything you've discussed in the show notes so that our listeners can enjoy learning more. So until next time, everybody, take care. Thanks. Thanks.